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UEFA Champions League · Full time ·League Stage - 3

Paris Saint Germain vs Barcelona

4 – 2 Full time

17′João Cancelo
20′Ousmane DembéléFerrán Torres
27′Daniel Olmo CarvajalFermín López
38′Désiré Doue
55′Xavi Espart
59′Marcos Aoás CorrêaIlya Zabarnyi
59′Khvicha KvaratskheliaMaghnes Akliouche
60′Raphael Dias BelloliKarim Adeyemi
60′PedriPablo Martín Páez Gavira
60′Marc BernalRodrigo Hernandez Cascante
72′Lucas Hernández
74′Xavi EspartAlejandro Balde
78′Lucas HernándezWarren Zaire-Emery
78′Désiré DoueSenny Mayulu
79′Lamine Yamal
81′Vitinha
86′Fabián Ruiz

Parc des Princes, ParisReferee: Michael Oliver

Paris Saint Germain 38%
Draw 21%
Barcelona 41%

Confidence: High  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

22 Shots 18
14 Shots on target 5
47 Possession % 53
2 Corners 3
11 Fouls 10
2 Offsides 1
3 Saves 10
406 Accurate passes 472

Paris Saint Germain vs Barcelona overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Paris Saint Germain vs Barcelona

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityParis Saint GermainDrawBarcelona
Model35.8%20.0%44.2%
Market38.7%21.7%39.5%
Final38.0%21.3%40.7%
Edge-0.7%-0.4%+1.2%

Confidence: High · Edge = Final minus Market

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Paris Saint Ge ↓ / Barcelona → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 6% 6% 5% 6% 2 6% 7% 6% 6% 3 4% 5% 4% 5% 4+ 4% 5% 4% 4%

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 99%
2+ goals 95%
3+ goals 84%
No goals 1%

Paris Saint Germain and Barcelona expected goals

Paris Saint Germain 2.21
Barcelona 2.45

Total expected goals: 4.65

Paris Saint Germain and Barcelona attack and defence ratings

Paris Saint Germain

Attack 1.57 +57%
Defence 0.97 -3%

Barcelona

Attack 1.94 +94%
Defence 0.74 -26%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Paris Saint Germain vs Barcelona: result vs prediction

Paris Saint Germain 4 – 2 Barcelona

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other League Stage - 3 fixtures

UEFA Champions League

Before and after this match

Paris Saint Germain vs Barcelona markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Barcelona 40.7% 2.46 +1.2% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 84.3% 1.19 — —
Both teams to score Yes 81.8% 1.22 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 78.7% 1.27 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 55.7% 1.80 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Paris Saint Germain38.0%
Draw21.3%
Barcelona40.7%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.584.3%
Under 2.515.7%
Both teams to scoreYes81.8%
No18.2%
Double chance1X (home or draw)59.3%
12 (either side)78.7%
X2 (draw or away)62.0%
Handicap -1Barcelona win27.2%
Push (exactly one goal)17.2%
Loss55.7%
Correct score (top 3)2-26.9%
1-26.3%
2-15.7%

Paris Saint Germain vs Barcelona stats

Paris Saint Germain and Barcelona recent form

newest first
Paris Saint Germain WWWWWW
Barcelona WWWWWW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Paris Saint Germain vs Barcelona head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

4Paris Saint Germain wins 1Draws 5Barcelona wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2025-10-01BarcelonaParis Saint GermainUEFA Champions League1-2
2024-04-16BarcelonaParis Saint GermainUEFA Champions League1-4
2024-04-10Paris Saint GermainBarcelonaUEFA Champions League2-3
2021-03-10Paris Saint GermainBarcelonaUEFA Champions League1-1
2021-02-16BarcelonaParis Saint GermainUEFA Champions League1-4
2017-03-08BarcelonaParis Saint GermainUEFA Champions League6-1
2017-02-14Paris Saint GermainBarcelonaUEFA Champions League4-0
2015-04-21BarcelonaParis Saint GermainUEFA Champions League2-0
2015-04-15Paris Saint GermainBarcelonaUEFA Champions League1-3
2014-12-10BarcelonaParis Saint GermainUEFA Champions League3-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Paris Saint Germain vs Barcelona odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 38.7%, draw 21.7%, away 39.5%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 2.52 4.51 2.52
Bet365 2.45 4.33 2.40
BetVictor 2.45 4.40 2.38
Betano 2.57 4.45 2.45
Betfair 2.50 4.33 2.40
Dafabet 2.45 4.40 2.47
Marathonbet 2.49 4.45 2.48
Pinnacle 2.53 4.43 2.44
SBO 2.41 4.15 2.36
William Hill 2.40 4.20 2.40

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.47 ▲ +0.08
X 4.40 ▲ +0.20
2 2.42 ▼ -0.06

12 snapshots recorded, from .