Liverpool
vs
Villarreal
Garuda Lions Prediction: Liverpool
2 – 1 Predicted score · 8% model probability
Liverpool vs Villarreal overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Liverpool vs Villarreal
| Probability | Liverpool | Draw | Villarreal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 47.9% | 22.0% | 30.2% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 47.9% | 22.0% | 30.2% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Liverpool
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.19 vs 1.73.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Liverpool vs Villarreal match preview
Liverpool faces Villarreal in the UEFA Champions League on October 20, 2026. The model indicates a 48% probability of a Liverpool victory, while Villarreal has a 30% chance, and a draw stands at 22%. The expected goals suggest Liverpool may score 2.19, compared to Villarreal's 1.73, with the most likely scoreline being 2-1, occurring at an 8% probability.
In terms of recent form, Liverpool has recorded three wins and two draws in their last six matches, while Villarreal has struggled, with only two wins and four losses in the same timeframe. The likelihood of over 2.5 goals is 75%, and both teams scoring is at 74%, indicating a potentially high-scoring encounter. The confidence grade for this match is A, based solely on model probabilities.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Liverpool and Villarreal expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.91
Liverpool and Villarreal attack and defence ratings
Liverpool
Villarreal
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other League Stage - 3 fixtures
- Fenerbahçe v Slavia Praha — match page
- Sabah FA vs Borussia Dortmund — team news & stats
- Manchester City v AEK Athens FC — match page
- Paris Saint Germain vs Barcelona — team news & stats
- VfB Stuttgart vs Atletico Madrid
- FC Porto v PSV Eindhoven — match page
- Napoli vs Bodo/Glimt — team news & stats
- Roma vs Slovan Bratislava
Before and after this match
Liverpool vs Villarreal markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Liverpool | 47.9% | 2.09 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 74.9% | 1.33 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 73.8% | 1.36 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 78.0% | 1.28 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 52.1% | 1.92 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Liverpool | 47.9% |
| Draw | 22.0% | |
| Villarreal | 30.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 74.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 25.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 73.8% |
| No | 26.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 69.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 78.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 52.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Liverpool win | 28.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.0% | |
| Loss | 52.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 8.3% |
| 2-1 | 8.2% | |
| 2-2 | 7.1% |
Liverpool vs Villarreal stats
Liverpool and Villarreal recent form
| Liverpool |
WWDWWD |
| Villarreal |
WWLLLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.