Liverpool
vs
Villarreal
4 – 3 Full time
| 4′ | Georges Mikautadze | ||
| 27′ | Alberto Moleiro | ||
| 29′ | Sergi Cardona Bermúdez | ||
| 36′ | Alexis Mac Allister | ||
| 41′ | Álvaro Santiago Mouriño González | ||
| 45′ | Ronald Araujo | ||
| 45′ | Ronald AraujoFlorian Wirtz | ||
| 45′ | Nathan-Dylan SalibaTani Oluwaseyi | ||
| 54′ | Alberto MoleiroJuan Foyth | ||
| 60′ | Tajon BuchananAlex Freeman | ||
| 60′ | Georges MikautadzeAyoze Pérez | ||
| 65′ | Alexis Mac Allister | ||
| 66′ | Lewis KoumasAlexander Isak | ||
| 68′ | Florian Wirtz | ||
| 74′ | Rio NgumohaBradley Barcola | ||
| 74′ | Jérémy JacquetJoe Gomez | ||
| 78′ | Santi ComesañaGerard Moreno | ||
| 81′ | Treymaurice NyoniJames McConnell | ||
| 87′ | Tani Oluwaseyi |
Match stats
| 22 | Shots | 14 |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Shots on target | 5 |
| 53 | Possession % | 47 |
| 7 | Corners | 2 |
| 12 | Fouls | 10 |
| 2 | Offsides | 4 |
| 2 | Saves | 4 |
| 464 | Accurate passes | 415 |
Liverpool vs Villarreal overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Liverpool vs Villarreal
| Probability | Liverpool | Draw | Villarreal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 48.4% | 22.0% | 29.6% |
| Market | 64.6% | 20.1% | 15.3% |
| Final | 60.5% | 20.6% | 18.9% |
| Edge | -4.0% | +0.5% | +3.6% |
Why Liverpool
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.19 vs 1.71.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Liverpool and Villarreal expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.90
Liverpool and Villarreal attack and defence ratings
Liverpool
Villarreal
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Liverpool vs Villarreal: result vs prediction
Liverpool 4 – 3 Villarreal
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other League Stage - 3 fixtures
- Fenerbahçe v Slavia Praha — match page
- Sabah FA vs Borussia Dortmund — team news & stats
- Manchester City v AEK Athens FC — match page
- Paris Saint Germain vs Barcelona — team news & stats
- VfB Stuttgart vs Atletico Madrid
- FC Porto v PSV Eindhoven — match page
- Napoli vs Bodo/Glimt — team news & stats
- Roma vs Slovan Bratislava
Before and after this match
Liverpool vs Villarreal markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Liverpool | 60.5% | 1.65 | -4.0% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 74.7% | 1.34 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 73.5% | 1.36 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 81.1% | 1.23 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 51.7% | 1.93 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Liverpool | 60.5% |
| Draw | 20.6% | |
| Villarreal | 18.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 74.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 25.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 73.5% |
| No | 26.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 81.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 79.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 39.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Liverpool win | 29.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.1% | |
| Loss | 51.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 8.3% |
| 2-1 | 8.3% | |
| 2-2 | 7.1% |
Liverpool vs Villarreal stats
Liverpool and Villarreal recent form
| Liverpool |
WWLWWD |
| Villarreal |
DWLWWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Liverpool vs Villarreal head-to-head
Last 4 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-05-03 | Villarreal | Liverpool | UEFA Champions League | 2-3 |
| 2022-04-27 | Liverpool | Villarreal | UEFA Champions League | 2-0 |
| 2016-05-05 | Liverpool | Villarreal | UEFA Europa League | 3-0 |
| 2016-04-28 | Villarreal | Liverpool | UEFA Europa League | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Liverpool vs Villarreal odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 64.6%, draw 20.1%, away 15.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.52 | 4.92 | 6.40 |
| Bet365 | 1.48 | 4.50 | 6.25 |
| BetVictor | 1.45 | 4.80 | 6.50 |
| Betano | 1.55 | 4.70 | 6.10 |
| Betfair | 1.47 | 4.60 | 6.50 |
| Dafabet | 1.47 | 5.00 | 6.20 |
| Marathonbet | 1.50 | 4.85 | 6.30 |
| Pinnacle | 1.50 | 4.76 | 6.16 |
| SBO | 1.46 | 4.61 | 5.80 |
| William Hill | 1.44 | 4.50 | 5.80 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
12 snapshots recorded, from .