La Liga
·
Full time
·Matchday 10
Valencia
vs
Villarreal
1 – 2 Full time
| 14′ | David Otorbi EjededaweDaniel Raba Antolín | ||
| 34′ | Daniel Raba Antolín | ||
| 37′ | Renato Veiga | ||
| 38′ | José Luis García Vayá | ||
| 43′ | Ayoze Pérez | ||
| 59′ | Tajon Buchanan | ||
| 60′ | Pablo Maffeo | ||
| 62′ | Guido Rodríguez | ||
| 65′ | Juan FoythSergi Cardona Bermúdez | ||
| 65′ | Ilias Akhomach ChakkourAlberto Moleiro | ||
| 66′ | Ayoze PérezGeorges Mikautadze | ||
| 69′ | Alex Freeman | ||
| 70′ | Daniel Raba AntolínArnau Martínez López | ||
| 70′ | Javi GuerraHarvey Elliott | ||
| 77′ | Pablo MaffeoFilip Ugrinic | ||
| 77′ | Justin De HaasHugo Duro | ||
| 79′ | Pape Gueye | ||
| 82′ | Gerard MorenoSanti Comesaña | ||
| 87′ | Tajon BuchananPau Navarro | ||
| 89′ | Harvey Elliott | ||
| 89′ | Harvey Elliott | ||
| 90′ | Georges Mikautadze |
Valencia
30%
Draw
26%
Villarreal
45%
Match stats
| 9 | Shots | 19 |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Shots on target | 3 |
| 38 | Possession % | 62 |
| 6 | Corners | 9 |
| 18 | Fouls | 9 |
| 2 | Offsides | 2 |
| 1 | Saves | 4 |
| 249 | Accurate passes | 465 |
Valencia vs Villarreal overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Valencia vs Villarreal
| Probability | Valencia | Draw | Villarreal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 35.6% | 23.8% | 40.5% |
| Market | 27.5% | 26.6% | 45.9% |
| Final | 29.5% | 25.9% | 44.5% |
| Edge | +2.0% | -0.7% | -1.3% |
Why Villarreal
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
97%
2+ goals
92%
3+ goals
75%
No goals
3%
Valencia and Villarreal expected goals
Valencia
1.82
Villarreal
2.03
Total expected goals: 3.85
Valencia and Villarreal attack and defence ratings
Valencia
Attack
0.95 -5%
Defence
1.09 +9%
Villarreal
Attack
1.60 +60%
Defence
1.20 +20%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Valencia vs Villarreal: result vs prediction
Valencia 1 – 2 Villarreal
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
Before and after this match
Valencia vs Villarreal markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Villarreal | 44.5% | 2.25 | -1.3% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 75.3% | 1.33 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 75.5% | 1.32 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 74.1% | 1.35 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 59.5% | 1.68 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Valencia | 29.5% |
| Draw | 25.9% | |
| Villarreal | 44.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 75.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 24.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 75.5% |
| No | 24.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 55.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 70.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Villarreal win | 23.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17.0% | |
| Loss | 59.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 9.0% |
| 1-2 | 7.7% | |
| 2-2 | 7.3% |
Valencia vs Villarreal stats
Valencia and Villarreal recent form
| Valencia |
DDLWLL |
| Villarreal |
LDWLWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Valencia and Villarreal going into this match
Valencia record
- They have won 1 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They average 1.0 goals per game on the road against 0.4 at home.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 9 matches.
Villarreal record
- They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 69% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Valencia vs Villarreal head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
2Valencia wins
3Draws
5Villarreal wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-22 | Villarreal | Valencia | La Liga | 2-1 |
| 2025-10-25 | Valencia | Villarreal | La Liga | 0-2 |
| 2025-02-15 | Villarreal | Valencia | La Liga | 1-1 |
| 2024-08-31 | Valencia | Villarreal | La Liga | 1-1 |
| 2024-03-17 | Villarreal | Valencia | La Liga | 1-0 |
| 2024-01-02 | Valencia | Villarreal | La Liga | 3-1 |
| 2023-05-03 | Valencia | Villarreal | La Liga | 1-1 |
| 2022-12-31 | Villarreal | Valencia | La Liga | 2-1 |
| 2022-04-19 | Villarreal | Valencia | La Liga | 2-0 |
| 2021-10-30 | Valencia | Villarreal | La Liga | 2-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Valencia vs Villarreal odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 27.7%, draw 26.6%, away 45.7%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.49 | 3.74 | 2.17 |
| Bet365 | 3.50 | 3.50 | 2.05 |
| BetVictor | 3.40 | 3.70 | 2.05 |
| Betano | 3.55 | 3.45 | 2.07 |
| Betfair | 3.50 | 3.60 | 2.10 |
| Dafabet | 3.45 | 3.60 | 2.12 |
| Marathonbet | 3.40 | 3.64 | 2.11 |
| Pinnacle | 3.55 | 3.71 | 2.09 |
| SBO | 2.85 | 3.14 | 2.16 |
| William Hill | 3.30 | 3.40 | 2.05 |
| winamax_de | 3.20 | 3.60 | 2.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
1
3.49 ▲ +0.29
X
3.60 —
2
2.09 ▲ +0.09
27 snapshots recorded, from .