Atletico Madrid
vs
Deportivo La Coruna
Garuda Lions Prediction: Atletico Madrid
2 – 1 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.81 vs 1.00.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Atletico Madrid is the favourite, not a value bet.
Atletico Madrid vs Deportivo La Coruna overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Atletico Madrid vs Deportivo La Coruna
| Probability | Atletico Madrid | Draw | Deportivo La Coruna |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 56.4% | 26.2% | 17.4% |
| Market | 75.0% | 16.1% | 8.9% |
| Final | 70.3% | 18.7% | 11.0% |
| Edge | -4.6% | +2.5% | +2.1% |
Why Atletico Madrid
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.81 vs 1.00.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.34, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -5.8% per unit staked (our 70.3% × 1.34 − 1).
Atletico Madrid vs Deportivo La Coruna match preview
Atletico Madrid enters the match against Deportivo La Coruna with a strong probability of winning at 70%. Their recent form has been impressive, with five wins and a draw in their last six matches. The expected goals for Atletico Madrid stand at 1.81, while Deportivo La Coruna is projected to score 1.00. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-1, occurring with a 10% probability.
Deportivo La Coruna has struggled recently, managing only one win in their last six matches, which includes four losses. Their current form shows a draw followed by three consecutive losses before a recent win. Both teams are expected to score, with a probability of 56% for each team finding the net, and there is also a 56% likelihood of the match featuring over 2.5 goals.
Atletico Madrid and Deportivo La Coruna team news
Atletico Madrid news
- C. Romero — muscle injury
- J. Cardoso — thigh injury
- Koke — muscle injury
Deportivo La Coruna news
- B. Ede — hamstring injury
- M. Casado — collarbone injury
- N. Carrillo — muscle injury
- P. Aubameyang — knee injury
- Z. Eddahchouri — wrist injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider. Confirmed line-ups appear ~40 minutes before kickoff.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Atletico Madrid and Deportivo La Coruna expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.82
Atletico Madrid and Deportivo La Coruna attack and defence ratings
Atletico Madrid
Deportivo La Coruna
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
Before and after this match
Atletico Madrid vs Deportivo La Coruna markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Atletico Madrid | 70.3% | 1.42 | -4.6% | 1.34 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55.6% | 1.80 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56.0% | 1.79 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 89.0% | 1.12 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 43.6% | 2.29 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Atletico Madrid | 70.3% |
| Draw | 18.7% | |
| Deportivo La Coruna | 11.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 44.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56.0% |
| No | 44.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 89.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 81.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 29.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Atletico Madrid win | 34.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.0% | |
| Loss | 43.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.5% |
| 2-1 | 9.9% | |
| 2-0 | 9.9% |
Atletico Madrid vs Deportivo La Coruna stats
Atletico Madrid and Deportivo La Coruna recent form
| Atletico Madrid |
DWWWWW |
| Deportivo La Coruna |
DLDLDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Atletico Madrid and Deportivo La Coruna season so far
Atletico Madrid record
- They have won 6 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
- They average 2.5 goals per game at home against 2.0 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.
Deportivo La Coruna record
- They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game on the road against 1.2 at home.
- 47% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Atletico Madrid vs Deportivo La Coruna head-to-head
Last 1 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-13 | Deportivo La Coruna | Atletico Madrid | Copa del Rey | 0-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Atletico Madrid vs Deportivo La Coruna odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 74.2%, draw 16.5%, away 9.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.34 | 6.09 | 9.45 |
| Bet365 | 1.27 | 5.75 | 11.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.25 | 6.00 | 11.50 |
| Betano | 1.28 | 5.60 | 10.75 |
| Betfair | 1.25 | 5.50 | 12.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.28 | 6.20 | 11.00 |
| Marathonbet | 1.32 | 6.00 | 9.30 |
| Pinnacle | 1.28 | 5.95 | 10.29 |
| SBO | 1.25 | 5.13 | 8.10 |
| William Hill | 1.29 | 5.50 | 9.50 |
| winamax_de | 1.30 | 5.30 | 8.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
25 snapshots recorded, from .