Alaves
vs
Malaga
1 – 1 Full time
| 39′ | Lucas Boyé | ||
| 44′ | Adrian Nino | ||
| 45′ | Carles AleñáHugo Novoa Ramos | ||
| 55′ | Nicolas ValentiniYoussef Enriquez | ||
| 55′ | Abderrahmane RebbachDenis Suárez | ||
| 66′ | Mariano DíazToni Martínez | ||
| 67′ | Nahuel Tenaglia | ||
| 68′ | Adam AznouJosé Salinas | ||
| 68′ | Ramón EnríquezRafael Rodríguez Ruiz | ||
| 75′ | Antonio BlancoAitor Mañas | ||
| 77′ | Carlos PugaJuan Berrocal | ||
| 77′ | Adrian NinoCarlos Ruiz Rubio | ||
| 84′ | Carlos Dotor | ||
| 87′ | Carlos DotorJens Cajuste | ||
| 89′ | Aitor Mañas | ||
| 90′ | Juan Francisco Funes Arjona |
Match stats
| 18 | Shots | 7 |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Shots on target | 3 |
| 63 | Possession % | 37 |
| 7 | Corners | 2 |
| 14 | Fouls | 12 |
| 0 | Offsides | 2 |
| 2 | Saves | 3 |
| 367 | Accurate passes | 385 |
Alaves vs Malaga overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Alaves vs Malaga
| Probability | Alaves | Draw | Malaga |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 61.3% | 25.5% | 13.2% |
| Market | 58.0% | 25.3% | 16.7% |
| Final | 58.8% | 25.4% | 15.9% |
| Edge | +0.8% | +0.0% | -0.9% |
Why Alaves
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.82 vs 0.81.
- Better recent form: 1 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Alaves and Malaga expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.64
Alaves and Malaga attack and defence ratings
Alaves
Malaga
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Alaves vs Malaga: result vs prediction
Alaves 1 – 1 Malaga
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
Before and after this match
Alaves vs Malaga markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Alaves | 58.8% | 1.70 | +0.8% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 51.3% | 1.95 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 50.5% | 1.98 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 84.1% | 1.19 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 38.7% | 2.58 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Alaves | 58.8% |
| Draw | 25.4% | |
| Malaga | 15.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 51.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 48.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 49.5% |
| No | 50.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 84.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 41.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Alaves win | 38.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.1% | |
| Loss | 38.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.2% |
| 2-0 | 12.0% | |
| 1-0 | 10.5% |
Alaves vs Malaga stats
Alaves and Malaga recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Alaves and Malaga going into this match
Alaves record
- They have won 3 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Malaga record
- They have won 0 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They average 1.0 goals per game at home against 0.2 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 9 matches.
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Alaves vs Malaga head-to-head
Last 6 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-05-20 | Alaves | Malaga | Segunda División | 2-1 |
| 2022-12-18 | Malaga | Alaves | Segunda División | 1-0 |
| 2018-05-06 | Malaga | Alaves | La Liga | 0-3 |
| 2017-12-21 | Alaves | Malaga | La Liga | 1-0 |
| 2017-03-11 | Malaga | Alaves | La Liga | 1-2 |
| 2016-10-16 | Alaves | Malaga | La Liga | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Alaves vs Malaga odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 58.0%, draw 25.3%, away 16.7%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.69 | 3.90 | 5.99 |
| Bet365 | 1.65 | 3.75 | 5.75 |
| BetVictor | 1.62 | 3.80 | 5.75 |
| Betano | 1.72 | 3.80 | 5.40 |
| Betfair | 1.65 | 3.75 | 6.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.67 | 3.80 | 5.60 |
| Marathonbet | 1.66 | 3.84 | 5.90 |
| Pinnacle | 1.66 | 3.85 | 5.75 |
| SBO | 1.62 | 3.38 | 4.68 |
| William Hill | 1.62 | 3.60 | 5.50 |
| winamax_de | 1.68 | 3.70 | 4.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
25 snapshots recorded, from .