Alaves
vs
Malaga
Garuda Lions Prediction: Alaves
2 – 0 Predicted score · 12% model probability
Alaves vs Malaga overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Alaves vs Malaga
| Probability | Alaves | Draw | Malaga |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 59.0% | 26.7% | 14.3% |
| Market | 51.2% | 27.2% | 21.6% |
| Final | 53.2% | 27.1% | 19.7% |
| Edge | +7.8% | -0.5% | -7.2% |
Why Alaves
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.74 vs 0.82.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
- The market prices Alaves below the model: +7.8 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 1.89, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Alaves vs Malaga match preview
Alaves is set to host Malaga in their upcoming La Liga match, with a probability of 53% for a home victory according to our model. The expected goals for Alaves stand at 1.74, while Malaga is projected to score 0.82. The most likely scoreline is 2-0, occurring at a rate of 12%.
In terms of recent form, Alaves has recorded a mixed bag with two wins and three losses in their last five matches, while Malaga has struggled, managing only two draws and three losses in their recent outings. Both teams to score and the likelihood of over 2.5 goals are estimated at 49%, indicating a potentially low-scoring affair. The confidence grade for this match is rated at A.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Alaves and Malaga expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.56
Alaves and Malaga attack and defence ratings
Alaves
Malaga
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
Before and after this match
Alaves vs Malaga markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Alaves | 53.2% | 1.88 | +7.8% | 1.89 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 50.7% | 1.97 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 50.9% | 1.97 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 80.3% | 1.25 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 41.0% | 2.44 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Alaves | 53.2% |
| Draw | 27.1% | |
| Malaga | 19.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 49.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 50.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 49.1% |
| No | 50.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 80.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 46.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Alaves win | 35.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.3% | |
| Loss | 41.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.8% |
| 2-0 | 11.8% | |
| 1-0 | 10.8% |
Alaves vs Malaga stats
Alaves and Malaga recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Alaves and Malaga season so far
Alaves record
- They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Malaga record
- They have won 0 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.5 goals per match.
- They average 0.8 goals per game at home against 0.2 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 8 matches.
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Alaves vs Malaga head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Alaves vs Malaga odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 51.5%, draw 26.9%, away 21.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.89 | 3.74 | 4.57 |
| Bet365 | 1.83 | 3.40 | 4.33 |
| BetVictor | 1.80 | 3.40 | 4.20 |
| Betano | 1.88 | 3.45 | 4.35 |
| Betfair | 1.80 | 3.50 | 4.33 |
| Dafabet | 1.86 | 3.50 | 4.40 |
| Marathonbet | 1.84 | 3.64 | 4.45 |
| Pinnacle | 1.85 | 3.50 | 4.39 |
| SBO | 1.75 | 3.28 | 3.98 |
| William Hill | 1.83 | 3.40 | 4.20 |
| winamax_de | 1.68 | 3.70 | 4.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
13 snapshots recorded, from .