Barcelona
vs
Alaves
Garuda Lions Prediction: Barcelona
2 – 1 Predicted score · 8% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.85 vs 1.26.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Barcelona is the favourite, not a value bet.
Barcelona vs Alaves overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Barcelona vs Alaves
| Probability | Barcelona | Draw | Alaves |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 71.3% | 16.7% | 12.0% |
| Market | 84.2% | 10.6% | 5.2% |
| Final | 81.0% | 12.1% | 6.9% |
| Edge | -3.2% | +1.5% | +1.7% |
Why Barcelona
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.85 vs 1.26.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.16, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -6.1% per unit staked (our 81.0% × 1.16 − 1).
Barcelona vs Alaves match preview
Barcelona enters this match against Alaves with a strong probability of winning at 81%, while Alaves has a 7% chance of securing a victory. The most likely scoreline predicted by the model is 2-1, occurring with an 8% likelihood. Barcelona's expected goals stand at 2.85, compared to Alaves' 1.26, indicating a significant offensive advantage for the home side.
Recent form shows Barcelona recovering with three wins in their last six matches, while Alaves struggles with only one draw and five losses in the same period. In their last six encounters, Barcelona has dominated with five wins, further emphasizing their strength in this matchup. The model also suggests an 80% likelihood of over 2.5 goals and a 69% chance that both teams will score.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Barcelona and Alaves expected goals
Total expected goals: 4.10
Barcelona and Alaves attack and defence ratings
Barcelona
Alaves
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
Before and after this match
Barcelona vs Alaves markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Barcelona | 81.0% | 1.24 | -3.2% | 1.16 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 79.6% | 1.26 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 69.0% | 1.45 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 93.1% | 1.07 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Barcelona win | 53.1% | 1.88 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Barcelona | 81.0% |
| Draw | 12.1% | |
| Alaves | 6.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 79.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 20.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 69.0% |
| No | 31.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 93.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 87.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 19.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Barcelona win | 53.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.2% | |
| Loss | 28.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-1 | 8.0% |
| 3-1 | 8.0% | |
| 1-1 | 6.5% |
Barcelona vs Alaves stats
Barcelona and Alaves recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Barcelona and Alaves season so far
Barcelona record
- They have won 9 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 4.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 9 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
Alaves record
- They have won 3 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Barcelona vs Alaves head-to-head
Last 6 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-13 | Alaves | Barcelona | La Liga | 1-0 |
| 2025-11-29 | Barcelona | Alaves | La Liga | 3-1 |
| 2025-02-02 | Barcelona | Alaves | La Liga | 1-0 |
| 2024-10-06 | Alaves | Barcelona | La Liga | 0-3 |
| 2024-02-03 | Alaves | Barcelona | La Liga | 1-3 |
| 2023-11-12 | Barcelona | Alaves | La Liga | 2-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Barcelona vs Alaves odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 84.2%, draw 10.6%, away 5.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.14 | 10.40 | 24.00 |
| Bet365 | 1.08 | 10.00 | 17.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.08 | 9.00 | 17.00 |
| Betano | 1.13 | 8.75 | 18.00 |
| Betfair | 1.10 | 9.00 | 18.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.12 | 9.80 | 19.00 |
| Marathonbet | 1.12 | 7.70 | 18.25 |
| Pinnacle | 1.16 | 7.25 | 28.17 |
| SBO | 1.12 | 7.53 | 11.56 |
| William Hill | 1.12 | 8.50 | 19.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
15 snapshots recorded, from .