Rayo Vallecano
vs
Celta Vigo
Garuda Lions Prediction: Rayo Vallecano
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.49 vs 1.04.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Rayo Vallecano is the favourite, not a value bet.
Rayo Vallecano vs Celta Vigo overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Rayo Vallecano vs Celta Vigo
| Probability | Rayo Vallecano | Draw | Celta Vigo |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 47.0% | 30.1% | 22.8% |
| Market | 41.6% | 28.1% | 30.3% |
| Final | 43.0% | 28.6% | 28.5% |
| Edge | +1.4% | +0.5% | -1.9% |
Why Rayo Vallecano
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.49 vs 1.04.
Best available price on the pick: 2.40, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +3.1% per unit staked (our 43.0% × 2.40 − 1).
Rayo Vallecano vs Celta Vigo match preview
Rayo Vallecano hosts Celta Vigo in what promises to be an intriguing La Liga clash. According to our model, Rayo Vallecano has a 43% probability of winning, while both a draw and a Celta Vigo victory stand at 29%. The expected goals for Rayo Vallecano are 1.51, compared to Celta Vigo's 1.08, indicating a slight edge for the home side. The most likely scoreline predicted is 2-1, occurring with a 9% probability.
In terms of recent form, Rayo Vallecano has recorded two wins, two draws, and a loss in their last five matches, while Celta Vigo has managed three wins, one draw, and a loss in the same timeframe. The head-to-head record over the last six encounters shows Rayo Vallecano with two wins, Celta Vigo with one win, and three matches ending in draws. Both teams have a 55% chance of scoring, suggesting an engaging match ahead.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Rayo Vallecano and Celta Vigo expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.53
Rayo Vallecano and Celta Vigo attack and defence ratings
Rayo Vallecano
Celta Vigo
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
Before and after this match
Rayo Vallecano vs Celta Vigo markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Rayo Vallecano | 43.0% | 2.33 | +1.4% | 2.40 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 51.8% | 1.93 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53.5% | 1.87 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 71.5% | 1.40 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 53.0% | 1.89 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Rayo Vallecano | 43.0% |
| Draw | 28.6% | |
| Celta Vigo | 28.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 48.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 51.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53.5% |
| No | 46.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 71.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 57.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Rayo Vallecano win | 25.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.5% | |
| Loss | 53.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.4% |
| 0-0 | 9.8% | |
| 2-1 | 9.4% |
Rayo Vallecano vs Celta Vigo stats
Rayo Vallecano and Celta Vigo recent form
| Rayo Vallecano |
LDDWLW |
| Celta Vigo |
DWWLDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Rayo Vallecano and Celta Vigo season so far
Rayo Vallecano record
- They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Celta Vigo record
- They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 0.2 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 9 matches.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Rayo Vallecano vs Celta Vigo head-to-head
Last 6 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-18 | Celta Vigo | Rayo Vallecano | La Liga | 3-0 |
| 2025-09-21 | Rayo Vallecano | Celta Vigo | La Liga | 1-1 |
| 2025-05-18 | Celta Vigo | Rayo Vallecano | La Liga | 1-2 |
| 2025-01-10 | Rayo Vallecano | Celta Vigo | La Liga | 2-1 |
| 2024-03-31 | Celta Vigo | Rayo Vallecano | La Liga | 0-0 |
| 2023-12-11 | Rayo Vallecano | Celta Vigo | La Liga | 0-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Rayo Vallecano vs Celta Vigo odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 41.6%, draw 28.1%, away 30.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.32 | 3.51 | 3.34 |
| Bet365 | 2.25 | 3.20 | 3.10 |
| BetVictor | 2.20 | 3.25 | 3.00 |
| Betano | 2.32 | 3.35 | 3.10 |
| Dafabet | 2.32 | 3.35 | 3.10 |
| Marathonbet | 2.26 | 3.42 | 3.25 |
| Pinnacle | 2.40 | 3.47 | 3.05 |
| SBO | 2.17 | 3.07 | 2.90 |
| William Hill | 2.25 | 3.25 | 3.10 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
15 snapshots recorded, from .