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Copa del Rey · Full time ·Round of 128

Recreativo Huelva vs Rayo Vallecano

2 – 3 Full time

21′I. Alonso Martin
23′A. Marin
32′A. Marin
34′L. DasilvaM. Izaguirre
41′R. Riera
43′Alemao
46′I. Alonso MartinI. Balliu
46′A. GarciaM. A. Montero
57′F. PerezJ. de Frutos
57′J. VertrouwdA. Garcia
57′R. BelaidS. Camello
60′A. MarinD. Pecellin
60′S. CortesP. Romero
78′P. PratsC. A. Wehbe Gonzalez
80′M. KumbullaR. Nteka
84′G. Tsitaishvili
97′Alemao
99′J. de Frutos
102′S. CamelloF. Lejeune
102′A. BernalJ. Ramirez
108′F. Lejeune
109′P. Romero
111′A. Garcia
115′Alemao
120′C. A. Wehbe Gonzalez

Nuevo Colombino, Huelva

Recreativo Huelva 18%
Draw 23%
Rayo Vallecano 59%

Confidence: Medium  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

12 Shots 35
6 Shots on target 8
33 Possession % 67
0 Corners 15
14 Fouls 18
0 Offsides 1
4 Saves 4
272 Accurate passes 673

Recreativo Huelva vs Rayo Vallecano overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Recreativo Huelva vs Rayo Vallecano

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityRecreativo HuelvaDrawRayo Vallecano
Model26.7%25.6%47.6%
Market15.7%21.5%62.8%
Final18.5%22.6%59.0%
Edge+2.8%+1.0%-3.8%

Confidence: Medium · Edge = Final minus Market

Why Rayo Vallecano

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.77 vs 1.26.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Recreativo Hue ↓ / Rayo Vallecano → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 7% 8% 1 12% 10% 2 7% 6% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 94%
2+ goals 82%
3+ goals 58%
No goals 6%

Recreativo Huelva and Rayo Vallecano expected goals

Recreativo Huelva 1.26
Rayo Vallecano 1.77

Total expected goals: 3.02

Recreativo Huelva and Rayo Vallecano attack and defence ratings

Recreativo Huelva

Attack 1.00 +0%
Defence 1.00 +0%

Rayo Vallecano

Attack 0.90 -10%
Defence 0.97 -3%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Recreativo Huelva vs Rayo Vallecano: result vs prediction

Recreativo Huelva 2 – 3 Rayo Vallecano

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Round of 128 fixtures

Copa del Rey

Before and after this match

Recreativo Huelva vs Rayo Vallecano markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Rayo Vallecano 59.0% 1.70 -3.8% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 58.1% 1.72 — —
Both teams to score Yes 60.5% 1.65 — —
Double chance X2 (draw or away) 81.5% 1.23 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 51.8% 1.93 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Recreativo Huelva18.5%
Draw22.6%
Rayo Vallecano59.0%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.558.1%
Under 2.541.9%
Both teams to scoreYes60.5%
No39.5%
Double chance1X (home or draw)41.0%
12 (either side)77.4%
X2 (draw or away)81.5%
Handicap -1Rayo Vallecano win26.9%
Push (exactly one goal)21.3%
Loss51.8%
Correct score (top 3)1-111.9%
1-29.5%
0-27.5%

Recreativo Huelva vs Rayo Vallecano stats

Recreativo Huelva and Rayo Vallecano recent form

newest first
Recreativo Huelva no matches on record
Rayo Vallecano LDDWLW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Recreativo Huelva vs Rayo Vallecano head-to-head

No recent meetings on record

Our head-to-head history covers these clubs' top-flight matches from 2014 onwards — these two simply haven't crossed paths in that window (newly promoted sides and cross-division pairings are the usual reason). The prediction doesn't rely on H2H: it is built from each team's current expected-goals ratings.

Recreativo Huelva vs Rayo Vallecano odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 15.7%, draw 21.5%, away 62.8%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 6.17 4.30 1.48
Bet365 7.50 4.33 1.44
BetVictor 5.75 4.10 1.50
Betano 5.70 4.10 1.50
Betfair 6.00 4.50 1.47
Dafabet 6.20 4.40 1.53
Marathonbet 6.15 4.30 1.47
Pinnacle 5.37 4.30 1.48
SBO 5.03 3.81 1.45
William Hill 5.80 4.00 1.44

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 5.90 ▼ -0.10
X 4.30 ▲ +0.10
2 1.48 ▲ +0.01

2 snapshots recorded, from .