Garuda Lions
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Copa del Rey · Full time ·Round of 128

RSD Alcalá vs Las Palmas

1 – 3 Full time

18′J. Jimenez
24′A. GarciaJ. Recoba
28′A. Perez
46′J. RecobaM. Fuster
46′Alex SuarezJ. Herzog
46′J. GarridoM. Sanchez
49′K. Rodriguez
57′K. ManzanoM. Garcia
61′M. Lopez
67′K. Rodriguez
67′L. Simon
68′L. SanchezL. Simon
69′M. RamirezA. Alburquerque
70′I. MedinaE. Loiodice
71′M. Sanchez
73′N. OpokuT. Miyashiro
75′M. LopezD. Robles
78′Ato
95′A. PerezChete
95′K. Rodriguez
96′Chete
101′P. Moya
105′M. Fuster
109′K. RodriguezM. Acimovic

Estadio Municipal El Val, Alcala de Henares

RSD Alcalá 18%
Draw 23%
Las Palmas 59%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

RSD Alcalá vs Las Palmas overview

Garuda Lions analysis: RSD Alcalá vs Las Palmas

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityRSD AlcaláDrawLas Palmas
Model21.1%24.5%54.4%
Market17.1%22.1%60.8%
Final18.1%22.7%59.2%
Edge+1.0%+0.6%-1.6%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Why Las Palmas

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.89 vs 1.10.
  • Better recent form: 1 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

RSD Alcalá ↓ / Las Palmas → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 6% 8% 9% 1 11% 10% 6% 2 6% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 94%
2+ goals 81%
3+ goals 58%
No goals 6%

RSD Alcalá and Las Palmas expected goals

RSD Alcalá 1.10
Las Palmas 1.89

Total expected goals: 3.00

RSD Alcalá and Las Palmas attack and defence ratings

RSD Alcalá

Attack 0.83 -17%
Defence 1.24 +24%

Las Palmas

Attack 0.78 -22%
Defence 1.02 +2%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

RSD Alcalá vs Las Palmas: result vs prediction

RSD Alcalá 1 – 3 Las Palmas

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Round of 128 fixtures

Copa del Rey

Before and after this match

RSD Alcalá vs Las Palmas markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Las Palmas 59.2% 1.69 -1.6% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 57.6% 1.74 — —
Both teams to score Yes 57.9% 1.73 — —
Double chance X2 (draw or away) 81.9% 1.22 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 45.2% 2.21 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2RSD Alcalá18.1%
Draw22.7%
Las Palmas59.2%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.557.6%
Under 2.542.4%
Both teams to scoreYes57.9%
No42.1%
Double chance1X (home or draw)40.8%
12 (either side)77.3%
X2 (draw or away)81.9%
Handicap -1Las Palmas win32.4%
Push (exactly one goal)22.4%
Loss45.2%
Correct score (top 3)1-111.5%
1-29.9%
0-28.9%

RSD Alcalá vs Las Palmas stats

RSD Alcalá and Las Palmas recent form

newest first
RSD Alcalá L
Las Palmas WLLDLL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 1 completed matches.

RSD Alcalá vs Las Palmas head-to-head

No recent meetings on record

Our head-to-head history covers these clubs' top-flight matches from 2014 onwards — these two simply haven't crossed paths in that window (newly promoted sides and cross-division pairings are the usual reason). The prediction doesn't rely on H2H: it is built from each team's current expected-goals ratings.

RSD Alcalá vs Las Palmas odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 17.1%, draw 22.1%, away 60.8%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 5.59 4.20 1.53
Bet365 5.50 4.50 1.53
BetVictor 5.50 4.00 1.50
Betano 4.90 3.95 1.57
Betfair 5.50 4.33 1.53
Dafabet 5.40 4.30 1.61
Marathonbet 5.70 4.20 1.51
Pinnacle 5.10 4.30 1.51
SBO 5.03 3.68 1.47
William Hill 5.00 3.80 1.57

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 5.45 ▼ -0.30
X 4.20 ▲ +0.05
2 1.53 ▲ +0.03

2 snapshots recorded, from .