Garuda Lions
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Copa del Rey · Full time ·Round of 128

Llanera vs Ponferradina

1 – 1 Full time

14′U. Sabroso
39′S. Faye
42′C. Calderon
42′D. Collado
46′O. VacasF. San Emeterio
54′N. Tounkara
55′L. AyadM. Mvondo
55′A. El BattiouiA. Turmo
61′D. Andujar
67′C. CalderonQ. Bari
67′U. SabrosoP. Munoz
73′D. ColladoD. Gonzalez
74′P. OtiaA. Aleman
77′J. ChibozoJ. de Leon
77′Y. YakubuP. Calvo
82′P. Calvo
84′M. Busto
95′N. TounkaraB. Valle
110′S. FayeSlavy
112′E. BillaG. Vaamonde
120′P. Munoz
120′P. Calvo
120′J. L. Aranda
120′D. Andujar
120′M. Busto
120′Slavy
120′A. Turmo
120′B. Valle
Llanera 20%
Draw 25%
Ponferradina 56%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Llanera vs Ponferradina overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Llanera vs Ponferradina

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityLlaneraDrawPonferradina
Model20.5%26.5%53.0%
Market19.3%24.0%56.6%
Final19.6%24.7%55.7%
Edge+0.3%+0.6%-0.9%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Why Ponferradina

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.69 vs 0.96.
  • Better recent form: 1 wins in the last 5 vs 0 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Llanera ↓ / Ponferradina → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 8% 11% 10% 1 13% 10% 2 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 92%
2+ goals 76%
3+ goals 50%
No goals 8%

Llanera and Ponferradina expected goals

Llanera 0.96
Ponferradina 1.69

Total expected goals: 2.66

Llanera and Ponferradina attack and defence ratings

Llanera

Attack 0.83 -17%
Defence 1.04 +4%

Ponferradina

Attack 0.83 -17%
Defence 0.89 -11%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Llanera vs Ponferradina: result vs prediction

Llanera 1 – 1 Ponferradina

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Round of 128 fixtures

Copa del Rey

Llanera vs Ponferradina markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Ponferradina 55.7% 1.79 -0.9% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 50.5% 1.98 — —
Both teams to score Yes 51.7% 1.93 — —
Double chance X2 (draw or away) 80.4% 1.24 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 46.6% 2.15 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Llanera19.6%
Draw24.7%
Ponferradina55.7%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.549.5%
Under 2.550.5%
Both teams to scoreYes51.7%
No48.3%
Double chance1X (home or draw)44.3%
12 (either side)75.3%
X2 (draw or away)80.4%
Handicap -1Ponferradina win29.9%
Push (exactly one goal)23.4%
Loss46.6%
Correct score (top 3)1-112.7%
0-110.7%
0-210.0%

Llanera vs Ponferradina stats

Llanera and Ponferradina recent form

newest first
Llanera L
Ponferradina LWLDD

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 1 completed matches.

Llanera vs Ponferradina head-to-head

No recent meetings on record

Our head-to-head history covers these clubs' top-flight matches from 2014 onwards — these two simply haven't crossed paths in that window (newly promoted sides and cross-division pairings are the usual reason). The prediction doesn't rely on H2H: it is built from each team's current expected-goals ratings.

Llanera vs Ponferradina odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 19.3%, draw 24.0%, away 56.6%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 4.94 3.90 1.64
Bet365 5.00 3.90 1.65
BetVictor 4.75 3.80 1.62
Betano 4.55 3.85 1.65
Betfair 5.00 4.10 1.62
Dafabet 4.90 4.20 1.68
Marathonbet 5.00 3.90 1.62
Pinnacle 4.48 3.81 1.65
SBO 4.43 3.50 1.58
William Hill 4.75 3.70 1.65

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 4.83 ▲ +0.23
X 3.88 ▼ -0.02
2 1.65 ▲ +0.02

2 snapshots recorded, from .