Llanera
vs
Ponferradina
Garuda Lions Prediction: Ponferradina
0 – 1 Predicted score · 11% model probability
Llanera vs Ponferradina overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Llanera vs Ponferradina
| Probability | Llanera | Draw | Ponferradina |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 20.5% | 26.5% | 53.0% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 20.5% | 26.5% | 53.0% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Ponferradina
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.68 vs 0.97.
- Better recent form: 1 wins in the last 5 vs 0 for the opposition.
Llanera vs Ponferradina match preview
Llanera faces Ponferradina in the Copa del Rey with a kickoff at 19:00 UTC on October 27, 2026. According to our model, Llanera has a 21% chance of winning, while Ponferradina is favored at 53%. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, with an 11% probability. Expected goals suggest Llanera will score 0.97, while Ponferradina is projected to net 1.68.
Recent form shows Llanera with a loss in their latest match, while Ponferradina has a mixed record of one win, one draw, and two losses in their last four games. The probabilities indicate a 26% chance of a draw, with a 49% likelihood of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance for both teams to score. The confidence grade for this match is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Llanera and Ponferradina expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.65
Llanera and Ponferradina attack and defence ratings
Llanera
Ponferradina
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Round of 128 fixtures
- Sestao River v Espanyol — match page
- Manresa v Sant Andreu — match page
- Castellonense vs Almeria — team news & stats
- Gimnástica Segoviana vs Cultural Leonesa
- RSD Alcalá vs Las Palmas — team news & stats
- Atlético Tordesillas vs Mirandes
- Ciudad de Lucena v Rayo Majadahonda — match page
- Don Benito vs Extremadura 1924
Llanera vs Ponferradina markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Ponferradina | 53.0% | 1.89 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 50.5% | 1.98 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51.7% | 1.93 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 79.5% | 1.26 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 47.0% | 2.13 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Llanera | 20.5% |
| Draw | 26.5% | |
| Ponferradina | 53.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 49.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 50.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51.7% |
| No | 48.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 47.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 79.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Ponferradina win | 29.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.4% | |
| Loss | 47.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.7% |
| 0-1 | 10.7% | |
| 0-2 | 10.0% |
Llanera vs Ponferradina stats
Llanera and Ponferradina recent form
| Llanera |
L |
| Ponferradina |
LWLDD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 1 completed matches.