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Copa del Rey · Full time ·Round of 128

Atlético Tordesillas vs Mirandes

3 – 3 Full time

6′Chatun
29′Chatun
35′D. HerradorF. Sanchez
35′FaroloJ. Arrasate
46′N. EspinosaJ. Gonzalez
46′M. AguirregabiriaRodri
46′H. ArrillagaP. Rodriguez
46′I. PedernalesC. Navarro
49′A. Conejo
55′SamuD. Rodriguez
56′M. HernandezJ. Torres
61′Chatun
65′ChatunS. Kante
69′Riki
76′Riki
81′A. Arambarri
84′A. Rodrigo TapiaM. Zorrozua
85′A. Conejo
90′A. Arambarri
90′J. Gonzalez
91′D. DiezA. Rodriguez
103′A. ArambarriM. Arriola
104′S. Kante
105′J. Castano
110′A. Verde
119′F. Sanchez
120′A. Uzkudun
120′F. Manja
120′Atlético Tordesillas
120′Atlético Tordesillas
120′A. Verde
120′J. Bueno
120′J. Gonzalez
120′C. Navarro
120′A. Conejo
120′D. de la Iglesia

Estadio Las Salinas

Atlético Tordesillas 21%
Draw 25%
Mirandes 54%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Atlético Tordesillas vs Mirandes overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Atlético Tordesillas vs Mirandes

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityAtlético TordesillasDrawMirandes
Model25.4%25.4%49.2%
Market19.3%24.7%56.1%
Final20.8%24.9%54.3%
Edge+1.5%+0.2%-1.7%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Why Mirandes

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.79 vs 1.23.
  • Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Atlético Torde ↓ / Mirandes → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 6% 8% 8% 1 12% 10% 2 7% 6% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 94%
2+ goals 81%
3+ goals 58%
No goals 6%

Atlético Tordesillas and Mirandes expected goals

Atlético Tordesillas 1.23
Mirandes 1.79

Total expected goals: 3.02

Atlético Tordesillas and Mirandes attack and defence ratings

Atlético Tordesillas

Attack 0.94 -6%
Defence 1.04 +4%

Mirandes

Attack 0.88 -12%
Defence 1.01 +1%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Atlético Tordesillas vs Mirandes: result vs prediction

Atlético Tordesillas 3 – 3 Mirandes

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Round of 128 fixtures

Copa del Rey

Atlético Tordesillas vs Mirandes markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Mirandes 54.3% 1.84 -1.7% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 58.1% 1.72 — —
Both teams to score Yes 60.1% 1.66 — —
Double chance X2 (draw or away) 79.2% 1.26 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 50.4% 1.98 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Atlético Tordesillas20.8%
Draw24.9%
Mirandes54.3%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.558.1%
Under 2.541.9%
Both teams to scoreYes60.1%
No39.9%
Double chance1X (home or draw)45.7%
12 (either side)75.1%
X2 (draw or away)79.2%
Handicap -1Mirandes win28.0%
Push (exactly one goal)21.6%
Loss50.4%
Correct score (top 3)1-111.8%
1-29.6%
0-27.8%

Atlético Tordesillas vs Mirandes stats

Atlético Tordesillas and Mirandes recent form

newest first
Atlético Tordesillas L
Mirandes LWDLLW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 1 completed matches.

Atlético Tordesillas vs Mirandes head-to-head

No recent meetings on record

Our head-to-head history covers these clubs' top-flight matches from 2014 onwards — these two simply haven't crossed paths in that window (newly promoted sides and cross-division pairings are the usual reason). The prediction doesn't rely on H2H: it is built from each team's current expected-goals ratings.

Atlético Tordesillas vs Mirandes odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 19.3%, draw 24.7%, away 56.1%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 4.85 3.82 1.66
Bet365 5.00 3.75 1.67
BetVictor 4.80 3.75 1.62
Betano 4.50 3.75 1.65
Betfair 4.75 3.90 1.67
Dafabet 5.00 3.95 1.71
Marathonbet 4.90 3.82 1.64
Pinnacle 4.66 3.69 1.65
William Hill 4.60 3.70 1.65

Odds movement

Only one odds snapshot recorded so far — movement needs at least two.