Pinatar
vs
Elche
Garuda Lions Prediction: Pinatar
2 – 1 Predicted score · 10% model probability
Pinatar vs Elche overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Pinatar vs Elche
| Probability | Pinatar | Draw | Elche |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 61.3% | 21.2% | 17.5% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 61.3% | 21.2% | 17.5% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Pinatar
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.25 vs 1.15.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 2 vs 1 for the opposition.
Pinatar vs Elche match preview
In the upcoming Copa del Rey match, Pinatar is favored with a 61% probability of winning against Elche, who has an 18% chance. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-1 in favor of Pinatar, with a 10% likelihood. Additionally, there is a strong expectation for over 2.5 goals at 66% and both teams scoring at 62%.
Pinatar comes into the match with recent form showing two consecutive wins, while Elche has struggled, recording one draw and four losses in their last six matches. The expected goals for Pinatar are 2.25, compared to Elche's 1.15, indicating a significant offensive advantage for Pinatar. The confidence grade for this forecast is B, suggesting a reasonable level of certainty in the predictions.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Pinatar and Elche expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.39
Pinatar and Elche attack and defence ratings
Pinatar
Elche
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Round of 128 fixtures
Before and after this match
Pinatar vs Elche markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Pinatar | 61.3% | 1.63 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 65.9% | 1.52 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61.9% | 1.62 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 82.5% | 1.21 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Pinatar win | 39.7% | 2.52 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Pinatar | 61.3% |
| Draw | 21.2% | |
| Elche | 17.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 65.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 34.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61.9% |
| No | 38.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 82.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 78.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 38.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Pinatar win | 39.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.6% | |
| Loss | 38.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-1 | 9.7% |
| 1-1 | 9.5% | |
| 2-0 | 8.5% |
Pinatar vs Elche stats
Pinatar and Elche recent form
| Pinatar | WW |
| Elche |
DWLDLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 2 completed matches.