Garuda Lions
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Copa del Rey · Full time ·Round of 128

Pinatar vs Elche

1 – 3 Full time

2′H. Rachiq
16′S. Piernas
18′M. El Farh Benhallou
32′E. Ponce
38′E. Ponce
54′E. Ponce
58′P. TarragaRiky
58′J. MartinezD. Acosta
62′JosanY. Santiago
68′S. PiernasHicham
68′H. RachiqJoselu
70′A. BoayarA. Osorio
71′G. DianganaF. Buonanotte
71′I. JimenezB. Gomez
72′P. Bigas
81′A. Houary
84′P. BigasA. Padilla
84′Tete MorenteR. Sanchez
Pinatar 17%
Draw 10%
Elche 73%

Confidence: Medium  ·  blended with market odds

Pinatar vs Elche overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Pinatar vs Elche

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityPinatarDrawElche
Model62.4%20.7%16.8%
Market2.3%5.9%91.8%
Final17.3%9.6%73.1%
Edge+15.0%+3.7%-18.7%

Confidence: Medium · Edge = Final minus Market

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Pinatar ↓ / Elche → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 7% 9% 2 8% 10% 6% 3 6% 7% 4+ 6% 7%

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 96%
2+ goals 87%
3+ goals 67%
No goals 4%

Pinatar and Elche expected goals

Pinatar 2.29
Elche 1.14

Total expected goals: 3.43

Pinatar and Elche attack and defence ratings

Pinatar

Attack 1.66 +66%
Defence 0.71 -29%

Elche

Attack 0.82 -18%
Defence 1.07 +7%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Pinatar vs Elche: result vs prediction

Pinatar 1 – 3 Elche

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Round of 128 fixtures

Copa del Rey

Before and after this match

Pinatar vs Elche markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Elche 73.1% 1.37 -18.7% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 66.7% 1.50 — —
Both teams to score Yes 62.1% 1.61 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 90.4% 1.11 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 83.0% 1.20 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Pinatar17.3%
Draw9.6%
Elche73.1%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.566.7%
Under 2.533.3%
Both teams to scoreYes62.1%
No37.9%
Double chance1X (home or draw)26.9%
12 (either side)90.4%
X2 (draw or away)82.7%
Handicap -1Elche win6.6%
Push (exactly one goal)10.3%
Loss83.0%
Correct score (top 3)2-19.7%
1-19.3%
2-08.5%

Pinatar vs Elche stats

Pinatar and Elche recent form

newest first
Pinatar WW
Elche WDDWLD

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 2 completed matches.

Pinatar vs Elche head-to-head

No recent meetings on record

Our head-to-head history covers these clubs' top-flight matches from 2014 onwards — these two simply haven't crossed paths in that window (newly promoted sides and cross-division pairings are the usual reason). The prediction doesn't rely on H2H: it is built from each team's current expected-goals ratings.

Pinatar vs Elche odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 2.3%, draw 5.9%, away 91.8%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 24.00 15.00 1.03
Bet365 41.00 19.00 1.02
BetVictor 41.00 10.00 1.03
Betano 35.00 11.00 1.03
Betfair 76.00 20.00 1.03
Dafabet 45.00 21.00 1.03
Marathonbet 48.00 15.00 1.01
William Hill 34.00 17.00 1.02

Odds movement

Only one odds snapshot recorded so far — movement needs at least two.