Elche
vs
Valencia
Garuda Lions Prediction: Elche
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.60 vs 1.30.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Elche is the favourite, not a value bet.
Elche vs Valencia overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Elche vs Valencia
| Probability | Elche | Draw | Valencia |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 44.2% | 28.3% | 27.4% |
| Market | 37.9% | 27.9% | 34.2% |
| Final | 39.4% | 28.0% | 32.5% |
| Edge | +1.6% | +0.1% | -1.7% |
Why Elche
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.60 vs 1.30.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 2.61, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +3.0% per unit staked (our 39.4% × 2.61 − 1).
Elche vs Valencia match preview
Elche hosts Valencia in a La Liga clash with a forecasted probability of 40% for an Elche win, 28% for a draw, and 32% for a Valencia victory. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-1 in favor of Elche, which has a 9% likelihood. The expected goals are 1.60 for Elche and 1.30 for Valencia, indicating a competitive match.
In terms of recent form, Elche has recorded a W-D-D-W-L-D streak, while Valencia has struggled with L-D-D-L-W-L. The head-to-head record shows Elche with 1 win and 1 draw against Valencia, who have yet to secure a victory in their last two encounters. Additionally, there is a 57% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% probability that both teams will score.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Elche and Valencia expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.90
Elche and Valencia attack and defence ratings
Elche
Valencia
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
Before and after this match
Elche vs Valencia markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Elche | 39.4% | 2.53 | +1.6% | 2.61 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57.3% | 1.75 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61.4% | 1.63 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 72.0% | 1.39 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 55.8% | 1.79 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Elche | 39.4% |
| Draw | 28.0% | |
| Valencia | 32.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 42.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61.4% |
| No | 38.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 67.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 60.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Elche win | 24.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.7% | |
| Loss | 55.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.3% |
| 2-1 | 9.3% | |
| 0-0 | 7.3% |
Elche vs Valencia stats
Elche and Valencia recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Elche and Valencia season so far
Elche record
- They have won 1 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.
- 41% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Valencia record
- They have won 1 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They average 1.0 goals per game on the road against 0.4 at home.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 9 matches.
Elche vs Valencia head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-11 | Elche | Valencia | La Liga | 1-0 |
| 2026-01-10 | Valencia | Elche | La Liga | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Elche vs Valencia odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 37.9%, draw 27.9%, away 34.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.55 | 3.52 | 2.96 |
| Bet365 | 2.50 | 3.30 | 2.70 |
| BetVictor | 2.45 | 3.25 | 2.63 |
| Betano | 2.55 | 3.35 | 2.77 |
| Betfair | 2.40 | 3.40 | 2.75 |
| Dafabet | 2.55 | 3.40 | 2.75 |
| Marathonbet | 2.48 | 3.42 | 2.88 |
| Pinnacle | 2.61 | 3.42 | 2.76 |
| SBO | 2.33 | 3.09 | 2.64 |
| William Hill | 2.40 | 3.25 | 2.80 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
15 snapshots recorded, from .