Villarreal
vs
Espanyol
Garuda Lions Prediction: Villarreal
2 – 1 Predicted score · 8% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.75 vs 1.16.
- RiskThe other two outcomes still add up to 35%.
Villarreal vs Espanyol overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Villarreal vs Espanyol
| Probability | Villarreal | Draw | Espanyol |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 71.7% | 17.1% | 11.3% |
| Market | 63.0% | 20.5% | 16.4% |
| Final | 65.2% | 19.7% | 15.1% |
| Edge | +2.2% | -0.9% | -1.3% |
Why Villarreal
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.75 vs 1.16.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Villarreal below our published probability: +2.2 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 1.57, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +2.3% per unit staked (our 65.2% × 1.57 − 1).
Villarreal vs Espanyol match preview
Villarreal enters the match against Espanyol with a strong probability of winning at 62%. Their recent form shows a mix of results, with two wins in their last five matches, while Espanyol has struggled, recording only one win in the same timeframe. The expected goals for Villarreal stand at 2.58 compared to Espanyol's 1.24, indicating a significant offensive advantage for the home side.
Historically, Villarreal has dominated this fixture, winning all four of their last encounters against Espanyol. Our model predicts a most likely scoreline of 2-1, with a 75% chance of over 2.5 goals being scored and a 68% likelihood that both teams will find the net. This matchup highlights Villarreal's strong position as they look to capitalize on their home advantage.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Villarreal and Espanyol expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.91
Villarreal and Espanyol attack and defence ratings
Villarreal
Espanyol
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
Before and after this match
Villarreal vs Espanyol markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Villarreal | 65.2% | 1.53 | +2.2% | 1.57 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 76.9% | 1.30 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 66.0% | 1.51 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 84.9% | 1.18 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Villarreal win | 53.1% | 1.88 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Villarreal | 65.2% |
| Draw | 19.7% | |
| Espanyol | 15.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 76.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 23.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 66.0% |
| No | 34.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 84.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 80.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 34.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Villarreal win | 53.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.6% | |
| Loss | 28.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-1 | 8.4% |
| 3-1 | 8.1% | |
| 2-0 | 7.3% |
Villarreal vs Espanyol stats
Villarreal and Espanyol recent form
| Villarreal |
WLDWLW |
| Espanyol |
LLDLLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Villarreal and Espanyol season so far
Villarreal record
- They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 69% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Espanyol record
- They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- 41% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Villarreal vs Espanyol head-to-head
Last 4 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-09 | Villarreal | Espanyol | La Liga | 4-1 |
| 2025-11-08 | Espanyol | Villarreal | La Liga | 0-2 |
| 2025-04-27 | Villarreal | Espanyol | La Liga | 1-0 |
| 2024-09-26 | Espanyol | Villarreal | La Liga | 1-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Villarreal vs Espanyol odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 63.0%, draw 20.5%, away 16.4%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.57 | 4.72 | 5.96 |
| Bet365 | 1.48 | 4.50 | 5.75 |
| BetVictor | 1.45 | 4.33 | 5.75 |
| Betano | 1.52 | 4.65 | 5.70 |
| Dafabet | 1.51 | 4.80 | 6.00 |
| Marathonbet | 1.53 | 4.60 | 5.80 |
| Pinnacle | 1.49 | 4.86 | 6.18 |
| SBO | 1.44 | 4.14 | 5.32 |
| William Hill | 1.50 | 4.40 | 5.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
15 snapshots recorded, from .