Athletic Club
vs
Real Sociedad
Garuda Lions Prediction: Athletic Club
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Athletic Club is the favourite, not a value bet.
Athletic Club vs Real Sociedad overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Athletic Club vs Real Sociedad
| Probability | Athletic Club | Draw | Real Sociedad |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 43.8% | 26.1% | 30.2% |
| Market | 46.0% | 26.7% | 27.3% |
| Final | 45.4% | 26.6% | 28.0% |
| Edge | -0.5% | -0.2% | +0.7% |
Best available price on the pick: 2.10, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -4.6% per unit staked (our 45.4% × 2.10 − 1).
Athletic Club vs Real Sociedad match preview
Athletic Club is set to face Real Sociedad in a La Liga clash with a kickoff scheduled for November 1, 2026. According to our model, Athletic Club has a 47% probability of winning, while Real Sociedad stands at 27%, and a draw is estimated at 26%. The expected goals for Athletic Club are 1.91, compared to Real Sociedad's 1.45. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-1, occurring at a rate of 9%.
In terms of recent form, Athletic Club has recorded a win, loss, and three draws in their last five matches, while Real Sociedad has achieved four wins and a loss in the same span. The head-to-head record over the last eight encounters shows Athletic Club with 2 wins, 2 draws, and Real Sociedad with 4 wins. Our model indicates a high likelihood of over 2.5 goals (67%) and both teams scoring (68%).
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Athletic Club and Real Sociedad expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.33
Athletic Club and Real Sociedad attack and defence ratings
Athletic Club
Real Sociedad
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
Before and after this match
Athletic Club vs Real Sociedad markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Athletic Club | 45.4% | 2.20 | -0.5% | 2.10 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 66.4% | 1.51 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 68.5% | 1.46 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 73.4% | 1.36 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 56.2% | 1.78 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Athletic Club | 45.4% |
| Draw | 26.6% | |
| Real Sociedad | 28.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 66.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 33.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 68.5% |
| No | 31.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 72.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 54.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Athletic Club win | 25.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.6% | |
| Loss | 56.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.4% |
| 2-1 | 8.9% | |
| 1-2 | 7.3% |
Athletic Club vs Real Sociedad stats
Athletic Club and Real Sociedad recent form
| Athletic Club |
WLDDDW |
| Real Sociedad |
WWWDWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Athletic Club and Real Sociedad season so far
Athletic Club record
- They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.2 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 8 matches.
- 41% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Real Sociedad record
- They have won 5 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They average 2.4 goals per game on the road against 1.2 at home.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Athletic Club vs Real Sociedad head-to-head
Last 8 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-04 | Real Sociedad | Athletic Club | Copa del Rey | 1-0 |
| 2026-02-11 | Athletic Club | Real Sociedad | Copa del Rey | 0-1 |
| 2026-02-01 | Athletic Club | Real Sociedad | La Liga | 1-1 |
| 2025-11-01 | Real Sociedad | Athletic Club | La Liga | 3-2 |
| 2025-05-04 | Real Sociedad | Athletic Club | La Liga | 0-0 |
| 2024-11-24 | Athletic Club | Real Sociedad | La Liga | 1-0 |
| 2024-01-13 | Athletic Club | Real Sociedad | La Liga | 2-1 |
| 2023-09-30 | Real Sociedad | Athletic Club | La Liga | 3-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Athletic Club vs Real Sociedad odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 46.0%, draw 26.6%, away 27.4%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.06 | 3.74 | 3.82 |
| Bet365 | 2.00 | 3.60 | 3.40 |
| BetVictor | 2.00 | 3.40 | 3.30 |
| Betano | 2.10 | 3.50 | 3.45 |
| Betfair | 2.05 | 3.40 | 3.30 |
| Dafabet | 2.09 | 3.55 | 3.45 |
| Marathonbet | 2.00 | 3.64 | 3.72 |
| Pinnacle | 2.06 | 3.65 | 3.57 |
| SBO | 2.05 | 3.11 | 3.11 |
| William Hill | 2.00 | 3.40 | 3.50 |
| pinnacle | 2.01 | 3.59 | 3.63 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
15 snapshots recorded, from .