Levante
vs
Atletico Madrid
Garuda Lions Prediction: Atletico Madrid
1 – 2 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.15 vs 1.56.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Atletico Madrid is the favourite, not a value bet.
Levante vs Atletico Madrid overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Levante vs Atletico Madrid
| Probability | Levante | Draw | Atletico Madrid |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 28.1% | 23.9% | 48.0% |
| Market | 19.7% | 21.7% | 58.6% |
| Final | 21.8% | 22.2% | 56.0% |
| Edge | +2.1% | +0.6% | -2.6% |
Why Atletico Madrid
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.15 vs 1.56.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.65, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -7.7% per unit staked (our 56.0% × 1.65 − 1).
Levante vs Atletico Madrid match preview
Levante faces Atletico Madrid in this La Liga clash, with the probabilities indicating a 23% chance for Levante to win, 23% for a draw, and a 55% likelihood for an Atletico Madrid victory. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-2, occurring with an 8% probability. Both teams are expected to score, with a 72% chance, and the forecast suggests a high likelihood of over 2.5 goals at 71%.
In terms of recent form, Levante has recorded a mixed set of results with one win, three draws, and two losses in their last six matches. Conversely, Atletico Madrid is in strong form, having won five of their last six games, with one draw. The expected goals for Levante stand at 1.64, while Atletico Madrid is projected at 1.93.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Levante and Atletico Madrid expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.71
Levante and Atletico Madrid attack and defence ratings
Levante
Atletico Madrid
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
Before and after this match
Levante vs Atletico Madrid markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Atletico Madrid | 56.0% | 1.79 | -2.6% | 1.65 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 73.0% | 1.37 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 72.8% | 1.37 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 78.2% | 1.28 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 52.0% | 1.92 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Levante | 21.8% |
| Draw | 22.2% | |
| Atletico Madrid | 56.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 73.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 27.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 72.8% |
| No | 27.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 44.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 77.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 78.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Atletico Madrid win | 29.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.6% | |
| Loss | 52.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 9.5% |
| 1-2 | 8.6% | |
| 2-2 | 7.0% |
Levante vs Atletico Madrid stats
Levante and Atletico Madrid recent form
| Levante |
LWDDLL |
| Atletico Madrid |
WDWWWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Levante and Atletico Madrid season so far
Levante record
- They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 3.2 goals per game at home against 0.4 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.
- 46% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Atletico Madrid record
- They have won 7 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
- They average 2.5 goals per game at home against 1.8 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 9 matches.
Levante vs Atletico Madrid head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-31 | Levante | Atletico Madrid | La Liga | 0-0 |
| 2025-11-08 | Atletico Madrid | Levante | La Liga | 3-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Levante vs Atletico Madrid odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 19.7%, draw 21.7%, away 58.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 5.24 | 4.56 | 1.65 |
| Bet365 | 4.75 | 4.10 | 1.60 |
| BetVictor | 4.80 | 4.10 | 1.55 |
| Betano | 4.70 | 4.45 | 1.62 |
| Dafabet | 4.80 | 4.40 | 1.63 |
| Marathonbet | 4.95 | 4.30 | 1.56 |
| Pinnacle | 4.64 | 4.75 | 1.64 |
| SBO | 4.43 | 3.91 | 1.55 |
| William Hill | 4.75 | 4.33 | 1.60 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
15 snapshots recorded, from .