Celta Vigo
vs
Levante
Garuda Lions Prediction: Celta Vigo
2 – 1 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.76 vs 1.23.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Celta Vigo is the favourite, not a value bet.
Celta Vigo vs Levante overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Celta Vigo vs Levante
| Probability | Celta Vigo | Draw | Levante |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 52.4% | 26.6% | 21.0% |
| Market | 52.2% | 25.4% | 22.4% |
| Final | 52.3% | 25.7% | 22.0% |
| Edge | +0.0% | +0.3% | -0.4% |
Why Celta Vigo
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.76 vs 1.23.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.95, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +2.0% per unit staked (our 52.3% × 1.95 − 1).
Celta Vigo vs Levante match preview
Celta Vigo is favored to win against Levante with a 52% probability, while a draw stands at 26% and Levante at 22%. The most likely scoreline predicted by the model is 2-1, occurring at a rate of 10%. Celta Vigo's expected goals are 1.79 compared to Levante's 1.15, indicating a stronger offensive outlook for the home side.
In terms of recent form, Celta Vigo has recorded a mixed set of results with two wins, two draws, and a loss in their last six matches. Levante, on the other hand, has struggled, managing only one win in their last six outings. The model suggests a 58% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% likelihood of both teams scoring in this matchup.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Celta Vigo and Levante expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.99
Celta Vigo and Levante attack and defence ratings
Celta Vigo
Levante
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
- Malaga vs Racing Santander — team news & stats
- Espanyol v Deportivo La Coruna — match page
- Osasuna vs Athletic Club — team news & stats
- Valencia vs Real Madrid
- Elche vs Real Betis
- Real Sociedad v Rayo Vallecano — match page
- Villarreal v Getafe — match page
- Atletico Madrid vs Barcelona — team news & stats
Before and after this match
Celta Vigo vs Levante markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Celta Vigo | 52.3% | 1.91 | +0.0% | 1.95 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58.4% | 1.71 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60.0% | 1.67 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 78.0% | 1.28 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 50.2% | 1.99 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Celta Vigo | 52.3% |
| Draw | 25.7% | |
| Levante | 22.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 41.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60.0% |
| No | 40.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 78.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 47.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Celta Vigo win | 29.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.5% | |
| Loss | 50.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.5% |
| 2-1 | 9.8% | |
| 2-0 | 8.6% |
Celta Vigo vs Levante stats
Celta Vigo and Levante recent form
| Celta Vigo |
LLDWWL |
| Levante |
LLWDDL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Celta Vigo and Levante season so far
Celta Vigo record
- They have won 2 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 0.2 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 10 matches.
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Levante record
- They have won 2 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 3.2 goals per game at home against 0.5 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 10 matches.
- 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Celta Vigo vs Levante head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-12 | Celta Vigo | Levante | La Liga | 2-3 |
| 2025-11-02 | Levante | Celta Vigo | La Liga | 1-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Celta Vigo vs Levante odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 50.3%, draw 26.3%, away 23.4%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.94 | 3.80 | 4.21 |
| Bet365 | 1.95 | 3.50 | 4.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.83 | 3.40 | 3.90 |
| Betano | 1.95 | 3.55 | 3.90 |
| Betfair | 1.87 | 3.70 | 4.20 |
| Dafabet | 1.92 | 3.65 | 4.10 |
| Marathonbet | 1.89 | 3.70 | 4.10 |
| Pinnacle | 1.90 | 3.84 | 4.07 |
| SBO | 1.85 | 3.19 | 3.64 |
| William Hill | 1.80 | 3.60 | 4.20 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
24 snapshots recorded, from .