Garuda Lions
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La Liga · ·Matchday 12

Valencia vs Real Madrid

Garuda Lions Prediction: Real Madrid

1 – 2 Predicted score · 9% model probability

  • WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.02 vs 1.30.
  • RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Real Madrid is the favourite, not a value bet.
Bet on Real Madrid

Estadio de Mestalla, Valdivia

Valencia 17%
Draw 19%
Real Madrid 64%

Confidence: High  ·  blended with market odds

Chance Real Madrid wins
64%
most likely outcome
Chance of a goal
95%
at least one goal in the match
Both teams score
70%
goals at both ends
Most likely score with our pick
1 – 2
9% of simulated outcomes

Valencia vs Real Madrid overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Valencia vs Real Madrid

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityValenciaDrawReal Madrid
Model26.6%24.5%48.9%
Market13.3%17.3%69.5%
Final16.6%19.1%64.3%
Edge+3.3%+1.8%-5.1%

Confidence: High · Edge = Final minus Market

Why Real Madrid

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.02 vs 1.30.
  • Better recent form: 6 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Best available price on the pick: 1.37, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -11.9% per unit staked (our 64.3% × 1.37 − 1).

Valencia vs Real Madrid match preview

Valencia faces Real Madrid in a La Liga clash on November 7, 2026. Valencia has a 17% probability of winning, while Real Madrid stands at 64%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-2, with an expected goals tally of 1.46 for Valencia and 2.09 for Real Madrid. Recent form shows Valencia with one win in their last six matches, while Real Madrid has won five of their last six, indicating a strong performance trend.

Both teams are expected to score, with our model suggesting a 70% probability for both teams finding the net. Additionally, there is a 70% likelihood of over 2.5 goals in the match. In their last six encounters, Real Madrid has dominated with four wins compared to Valencia's one victory.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Valencia ↓ / Real Madrid → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 7% 1 11% 9% 6% 2 6% 6% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 95%
2+ goals 87%
3+ goals 66%
No goals 5%

Valencia and Real Madrid expected goals

Valencia 1.30
Real Madrid 2.02

Total expected goals: 3.32

Valencia and Real Madrid attack and defence ratings

Valencia

Attack 0.92 -8%
Defence 0.98 -2%

Real Madrid

Attack 1.78 +78%
Defence 0.89 -11%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Other Matchday 12 fixtures

La Liga

Before and after this match

Valencia vs Real Madrid markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Real Madrid 64.3% 1.55 -5.1% 1.37
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 70.1% 1.43 — —
Both teams to score Yes 70.4% 1.42 — —
Double chance X2 (draw or away) 83.4% 1.20 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 49.3% 2.03 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Valencia16.6%
Draw19.1%
Real Madrid64.3%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.570.1%
Under 2.529.9%
Both teams to scoreYes70.4%
No29.6%
Double chance1X (home or draw)35.7%
12 (either side)80.9%
X2 (draw or away)83.4%
Handicap -1Real Madrid win30.9%
Push (exactly one goal)19.9%
Loss49.3%
Correct score (top 3)1-110.3%
1-28.9%
2-26.8%
Compare prices for this pick

Valencia vs Real Madrid stats

Valencia and Real Madrid recent form

newest first
Valencia WLDDLW
Real Madrid WWWWWW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Valencia and Real Madrid season so far

league record

Valencia record

  • They have won 2 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
  • They average 1.0 goals per game on the road against 0.5 at home.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 11 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 5 of 11 matches.

Real Madrid record

  • They have won 9 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 2.5 goals per match.
  • They average 3.4 goals per game at home against 1.8 on the road.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 11 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
  • 41% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Valencia vs Real Madrid head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

2Valencia wins 2Draws 6Real Madrid wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-02-08ValenciaReal MadridLa Liga0-2
2025-11-01Real MadridValenciaLa Liga4-0
2025-04-05Real MadridValenciaLa Liga1-2
2025-01-03ValenciaReal MadridLa Liga1-2
2024-03-02ValenciaReal MadridLa Liga2-2
2023-11-11Real MadridValenciaLa Liga5-1
2023-05-21ValenciaReal MadridLa Liga1-0
2023-02-02Real MadridValenciaLa Liga2-0
2023-01-11Real MadridValenciaSuper Cup1-1
2022-01-08Real MadridValenciaLa Liga4-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Valencia vs Real Madrid odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 9.9%, draw 15.9%, away 74.2%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 10.40 5.98 1.33
Bet365 8.50 6.25 1.28
BetVictor 10.50 6.50 1.25
Betano 10.50 5.60 1.29
Betfair 10.00 6.50 1.25
Dafabet 9.60 6.40 1.28
Marathonbet 10.25 5.90 1.31
Pinnacle 8.99 6.65 1.29
SBO 7.43 5.32 1.25
William Hill 9.00 5.80 1.25
pinnacle 6.58 5.70 1.37
Find the best place to bet

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 9.62 ▲ +2.12
X 6.12 ▲ +1.02
2 1.29 ▼ -0.07

33 snapshots recorded, from .

Prediction snapshot 2 Real Madrid Predicted score 1 – 2 High Bet Now
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