Malaga
vs
Racing Santander
Garuda Lions Prediction: Malaga
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.90 vs 1.39.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Malaga is the favourite, not a value bet.
Malaga vs Racing Santander overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Malaga vs Racing Santander
| Probability | Malaga | Draw | Racing Santander |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 43.4% | 26.2% | 30.4% |
| Market | 39.8% | 26.6% | 33.7% |
| Final | 40.7% | 26.5% | 32.9% |
| Edge | +0.9% | -0.1% | -0.8% |
Why Malaga
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.90 vs 1.39.
Best available price on the pick: 2.48, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +0.8% per unit staked (our 40.7% × 2.48 − 1).
Malaga vs Racing Santander match preview
In the upcoming La Liga fixture, Malaga faces Racing Santander with a probability of 41% for a Malaga win, 26% for a draw, and 33% for a Racing Santander victory. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-1 in favor of Malaga, with a 9% likelihood. The expected goals are 1.76 for Malaga and 1.48 for Racing Santander, indicating a competitive match.
Recent form shows Malaga with one win, two draws, and three losses, while Racing Santander has two wins, one draw, and three losses in their last six matches. In their last two head-to-head encounters, Malaga has not secured a win, with one draw and one loss to Racing Santander. The model suggests a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 67% likelihood that both teams will score.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Malaga and Racing Santander expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.30
Malaga and Racing Santander attack and defence ratings
Malaga
Racing Santander
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
Before and after this match
Malaga vs Racing Santander markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Malaga | 40.7% | 2.46 | +0.9% | 2.48 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 66.1% | 1.51 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 68.3% | 1.46 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 73.5% | 1.36 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 50.2% | 1.99 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Malaga | 40.7% |
| Draw | 26.5% | |
| Racing Santander | 32.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 66.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 33.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 68.3% |
| No | 31.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 67.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 59.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | Malaga win | 30.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.7% | |
| Loss | 50.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.5% |
| 2-1 | 8.9% | |
| 1-2 | 7.4% |
Malaga vs Racing Santander stats
Malaga and Racing Santander recent form
| Malaga |
LWDLDL |
| Racing Santander |
LWWLDL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Malaga and Racing Santander season so far
Malaga record
- They have won 0 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They average 1.0 goals per game at home against 0.5 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 11 matches.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Racing Santander record
- They have won 3 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 11 matches.
Malaga vs Racing Santander head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-24 | Malaga | Racing Santander | Segunda División | 1-1 |
| 2025-10-05 | Racing Santander | Malaga | Segunda División | 3-0 |
| 2025-02-01 | Racing Santander | Malaga | Segunda División | 2-1 |
| 2024-11-23 | Malaga | Racing Santander | Segunda División | 0-0 |
| 2023-03-05 | Malaga | Racing Santander | Segunda División | 0-1 |
| 2022-10-01 | Racing Santander | Malaga | Segunda División | 0-0 |
| 2020-02-23 | Malaga | Racing Santander | Segunda División | 2-0 |
| 2019-08-17 | Racing Santander | Malaga | Segunda División | 0-1 |
| 2012-04-09 | Malaga | Racing Santander | La Liga | 3-0 |
| 2011-11-21 | Racing Santander | Malaga | La Liga | 1-3 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Malaga vs Racing Santander odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 39.6%, draw 26.8%, away 33.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.48 | 3.72 | 2.92 |
| Bet365 | 2.35 | 3.60 | 2.88 |
| BetVictor | 2.38 | 3.60 | 2.80 |
| Betano | 2.42 | 3.55 | 2.82 |
| Betfair | 2.45 | 3.50 | 2.88 |
| Dafabet | 2.41 | 3.60 | 2.85 |
| Marathonbet | 2.41 | 3.62 | 2.84 |
| Pinnacle | 2.47 | 3.56 | 2.91 |
| SBO | 2.25 | 3.28 | 2.63 |
| William Hill | 2.30 | 3.50 | 2.75 |
| pinnacle | 2.42 | 3.51 | 2.84 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
33 snapshots recorded, from .