Real Sociedad
vs
Rayo Vallecano
Garuda Lions Prediction: Real Sociedad
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.56 vs 1.36.
- RiskThe other two outcomes still add up to 44%.
Real Sociedad vs Rayo Vallecano overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Real Sociedad vs Rayo Vallecano
| Probability | Real Sociedad | Draw | Rayo Vallecano |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 64.6% | 19.5% | 16.0% |
| Market | 53.8% | 24.1% | 22.1% |
| Final | 56.5% | 22.9% | 20.6% |
| Edge | +2.7% | -1.2% | -1.5% |
Why Real Sociedad
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.56 vs 1.36.
- The market prices Real Sociedad below our published probability: +2.7 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 1.75, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -1.1% per unit staked (our 56.5% × 1.75 − 1).
Real Sociedad vs Rayo Vallecano match preview
Real Sociedad enters the match against Rayo Vallecano with a strong recent form, having won four of their last six matches, including three consecutive victories. The team's expected goals stand at 2.56, suggesting a potent attacking performance, while Rayo Vallecano has an expected goals figure of 1.35. Our model indicates a high likelihood of goals, with a 77% probability of over 2.5 goals and a 70% chance that both teams will score.
Historically, the head-to-head record shows Real Sociedad with 1 win, 4 draws, and Rayo Vallecano with 2 wins in their last seven encounters. The probabilities for this match indicate a 56% chance of a Real Sociedad victory, a 23% chance of a draw, and a 21% chance for Rayo Vallecano, with the most likely scoreline predicted to be 2-1 in favor of the home side.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Real Sociedad and Rayo Vallecano expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.92
Real Sociedad and Rayo Vallecano attack and defence ratings
Real Sociedad
Rayo Vallecano
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
- Malaga vs Racing Santander — team news & stats
- Espanyol v Deportivo La Coruna — match page
- Osasuna vs Athletic Club — team news & stats
- Valencia vs Real Madrid
- Elche vs Real Betis
- Villarreal v Getafe — match page
- Celta Vigo vs Levante — team news & stats
- Atletico Madrid vs Barcelona — team news & stats
Before and after this match
Real Sociedad vs Rayo Vallecano markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Real Sociedad | 56.5% | 1.77 | +2.7% | 1.75 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 76.8% | 1.30 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 70.4% | 1.42 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 79.4% | 1.26 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Real Sociedad win | 45.2% | 2.21 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Real Sociedad | 56.5% |
| Draw | 22.9% | |
| Rayo Vallecano | 20.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 76.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 23.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 70.4% |
| No | 29.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 79.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 77.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 43.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Real Sociedad win | 45.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.1% | |
| Loss | 35.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-1 | 8.6% |
| 3-1 | 7.7% | |
| 1-1 | 7.7% |
Real Sociedad vs Rayo Vallecano stats
Real Sociedad and Rayo Vallecano recent form
| Real Sociedad |
DLWWWD |
| Rayo Vallecano |
WWLDDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Real Sociedad and Rayo Vallecano season so far
Real Sociedad record
- They have won 6 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They average 2.4 goals per game on the road against 1.4 at home.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 10 matches.
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Rayo Vallecano record
- They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Real Sociedad vs Rayo Vallecano head-to-head
Last 7 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-26 | Rayo Vallecano | Real Sociedad | La Liga | 3-3 |
| 2025-10-05 | Real Sociedad | Rayo Vallecano | La Liga | 0-1 |
| 2025-03-16 | Rayo Vallecano | Real Sociedad | La Liga | 2-2 |
| 2025-01-16 | Real Sociedad | Rayo Vallecano | Copa del Rey | 3-1 |
| 2024-08-18 | Real Sociedad | Rayo Vallecano | La Liga | 1-2 |
| 2024-01-27 | Real Sociedad | Rayo Vallecano | La Liga | 0-0 |
| 2023-10-29 | Rayo Vallecano | Real Sociedad | La Liga | 2-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Real Sociedad vs Rayo Vallecano odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 55.9%, draw 22.9%, away 21.1%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.72 | 4.30 | 4.92 |
| Bet365 | 1.70 | 4.10 | 4.50 |
| BetVictor | 1.65 | 3.90 | 4.33 |
| Betano | 1.70 | 4.20 | 4.50 |
| Betfair | 1.75 | 4.00 | 4.50 |
| Dafabet | 1.73 | 4.20 | 4.50 |
| Marathonbet | 1.68 | 4.20 | 4.80 |
| Pinnacle | 1.72 | 4.26 | 4.62 |
| SBO | 1.65 | 3.63 | 4.03 |
| William Hill | 1.67 | 4.00 | 4.40 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
24 snapshots recorded, from .