Sevilla
vs
Alaves
Garuda Lions Prediction: Sevilla
2 – 1 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.71 vs 1.15.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Sevilla is the favourite, not a value bet.
Sevilla vs Alaves overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Sevilla vs Alaves
| Probability | Sevilla | Draw | Alaves |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 50.6% | 27.5% | 22.0% |
| Market | 46.0% | 28.6% | 25.4% |
| Final | 47.1% | 28.3% | 24.5% |
| Edge | +1.1% | -0.3% | -0.9% |
Why Sevilla
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.71 vs 1.15.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 2.09, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -1.5% per unit staked (our 47.1% × 2.09 − 1).
Sevilla vs Alaves match preview
Sevilla hosts Alaves in a La Liga matchup where the probabilities suggest a competitive encounter. Our model gives Sevilla a 47% chance of winning, with a 28% likelihood of a draw and Alaves at 25%. The most likely scoreline is predicted to be 2-1 in favor of Sevilla, with expected goals of 1.71 for Sevilla and 1.15 for Alaves.
Recent form indicates that Sevilla has experienced mixed results, with their last five matches showing one win, one draw, and three losses. In contrast, Alaves has struggled, recording four losses and only one draw in their last five games. The head-to-head record over the last ten encounters shows Sevilla winning twice, while Alaves has four victories and there have been four draws.
Sevilla and Alaves team news
Sevilla news
- I. Romero — knee injury
- M. Bueno — suspended
- M. Sierra — shoulder injury
- Marcao — muscle injury
- Peque — hamstring injury
Alaves news
- M. Rodriguez — ankle injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider. Confirmed line-ups appear ~40 minutes before kickoff.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Sevilla and Alaves expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.86
Sevilla and Alaves attack and defence ratings
Sevilla
Alaves
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
Before and after this match
Sevilla vs Alaves markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sevilla | 47.1% | 2.12 | +1.1% | 2.09 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56.5% | 1.77 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 59.1% | 1.69 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 75.5% | 1.32 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 49.6% | 2.02 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sevilla | 47.1% |
| Draw | 28.3% | |
| Alaves | 24.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 43.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 59.1% |
| No | 40.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 75.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 52.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Sevilla win | 29.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.0% | |
| Loss | 49.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.0% |
| 2-1 | 9.8% | |
| 2-0 | 8.5% |
Sevilla vs Alaves stats
Sevilla and Alaves recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Sevilla and Alaves season so far
Sevilla record
- They have won 5 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- 52% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Alaves record
- They have won 3 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 11 matches.
Sevilla vs Alaves head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-14 | Sevilla | Alaves | La Liga | 1-1 |
| 2025-12-17 | Alaves | Sevilla | Copa del Rey | 1-0 |
| 2025-09-20 | Alaves | Sevilla | La Liga | 1-2 |
| 2025-04-20 | Sevilla | Alaves | La Liga | 1-1 |
| 2024-09-20 | Alaves | Sevilla | La Liga | 2-1 |
| 2024-01-12 | Sevilla | Alaves | La Liga | 2-3 |
| 2023-08-21 | Alaves | Sevilla | La Liga | 4-3 |
| 2023-01-17 | Alaves | Sevilla | Copa del Rey | 0-1 |
| 2022-03-04 | Alaves | Sevilla | La Liga | 0-0 |
| 2021-11-20 | Sevilla | Alaves | La Liga | 2-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Sevilla vs Alaves odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 50.8%, draw 27.8%, away 21.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.92 | 3.60 | 4.62 |
| Bet365 | 1.85 | 3.50 | 4.50 |
| BetVictor | 1.85 | 3.40 | 4.50 |
| Betano | 1.93 | 3.60 | 4.45 |
| Betfair | 1.87 | 3.40 | 4.60 |
| Dafabet | 1.97 | 3.45 | 4.10 |
| Marathonbet | 1.89 | 3.54 | 4.55 |
| Pinnacle | 1.89 | 3.45 | 4.81 |
| SBO | 1.85 | 3.33 | 4.21 |
| William Hill | 1.85 | 3.30 | 4.40 |
| marathonbet | 2.09 | 3.34 | 3.76 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
33 snapshots recorded, from .