Anaitasuna
vs
Alaves
Garuda Lions Prediction: Alaves
1 – 2 Predicted score · 8% model probability
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Alaves is the favourite, not a value bet.
Anaitasuna vs Alaves overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Anaitasuna vs Alaves
| Probability | Anaitasuna | Draw | Alaves |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 41.4% | 25.8% | 32.8% |
| Market | 2.5% | 6.2% | 91.3% |
| Final | 12.2% | 11.1% | 76.7% |
| Edge | +9.7% | +4.9% | -14.6% |
Best available price on the pick: 1.04, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -20.2% per unit staked (our 76.7% × 1.04 − 1).
Anaitasuna vs Alaves match preview
Anaitasuna faces Alaves in the Copa del Rey with a significant disparity in predicted outcomes. According to our model, Anaitasuna has a 12% chance of winning, while Alaves is favored at 77%. The most likely scoreline is projected to be 1-2 in favor of Alaves, with an 8% probability. Anaitasuna's expected goals stand at 1.65, compared to Alaves' 1.45.
Recent form shows Anaitasuna with two consecutive wins, while Alaves has struggled, recording three draws and three losses in their last six matches. The model indicates a 60% likelihood of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance that both teams will score, suggesting a potentially competitive match. The overall confidence grade for this prediction is B.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Anaitasuna and Alaves expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.11
Anaitasuna and Alaves attack and defence ratings
Anaitasuna
Alaves
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Round of 128 fixtures
Before and after this match
Anaitasuna vs Alaves markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Alaves | 76.7% | 1.30 | -14.6% | 1.04 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60.1% | 1.66 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63.1% | 1.59 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 88.9% | 1.12 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 67.2% | 1.49 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Anaitasuna | 12.2% |
| Draw | 11.1% | |
| Alaves | 76.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 39.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63.1% |
| No | 36.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 23.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 88.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 87.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Alaves win | 15.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17.1% | |
| Loss | 67.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.8% |
| 2-1 | 8.9% | |
| 1-2 | 7.8% |
Anaitasuna vs Alaves stats
Anaitasuna and Alaves recent form
| Anaitasuna |
WW |
| Alaves |
DLDLLD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 2 completed matches.
Anaitasuna vs Alaves head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Anaitasuna vs Alaves odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 2.5%, draw 6.2%, away 91.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 29.00 | 15.50 | 1.02 |
| Bet365 | 41.00 | 15.00 | 1.03 |
| BetVictor | 34.00 | 10.50 | 1.03 |
| Betano | 32.00 | 11.75 | 1.03 |
| Betfair | 61.00 | 23.00 | 1.03 |
| Dafabet | 50.00 | 16.00 | 1.04 |
| Marathonbet | 29.00 | 15.75 | 1.02 |
| William Hill | 46.00 | 15.00 | 1.04 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
23 snapshots recorded, from .