Garuda Lions
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Copa del Rey · Full time ·Round of 128

Castellonense vs Almeria

1 – 2 Full time

60′Leo Baptistao
66′D. de PedroM. Alvarez
66′J. WinstanleyJ. Rodriguez
71′P. Ferriz
73′I. GarijoA. Sangare
74′Leo BaptistaoM. Luna
75′Gui GuedesJavier Munoz
80′F. SastreR. Murcia
80′P. FerrizI. Jove
90′I. Jove
90′A. EmbarbaS. Arribas
90′Q. JunyentM. de la Fuente
93′A. Murillo
97′M. LachevreD. Castella
101′C. Badal Andani
105′A. PopovicA. Munoz
110′Javier Munoz
112′Thalys
120′D. Castella
120′S. Arribas

Estadio Municipal de Castalia

Castellonense 14%
Draw 21%
Almeria 65%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Castellonense vs Almeria overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Castellonense vs Almeria

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityCastellonenseDrawAlmeria
Model12.3%19.6%68.1%
Market13.9%21.7%64.3%
Final13.5%21.2%65.3%
Edge-0.4%-0.5%+1.0%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Why Almeria

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.33 vs 0.90.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Castellonense ↓ / Almeria → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 8% 11% 8% 8% 1 9% 10% 8% 8% 2 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 95%
2+ goals 84%
3+ goals 63%
No goals 5%

Castellonense and Almeria expected goals

Castellonense 0.90
Almeria 2.33

Total expected goals: 3.23

Castellonense and Almeria attack and defence ratings

Castellonense

Attack 1.00 +0%
Defence 1.00 +0%

Almeria

Attack 1.19 +19%
Defence 0.69 -31%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Castellonense vs Almeria: result vs prediction

Castellonense 1 – 2 Almeria

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Round of 128 fixtures

Copa del Rey

Before and after this match

Castellonense vs Almeria markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Almeria 65.3% 1.53 +1.0% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 62.5% 1.60 — —
Both teams to score Yes 54.5% 1.83 — —
Double chance X2 (draw or away) 86.5% 1.16 — —
Handicap -1 Almeria win 46.4% 2.16 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Castellonense13.5%
Draw21.2%
Almeria65.3%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.562.5%
Under 2.537.5%
Both teams to scoreYes54.5%
No45.5%
Double chance1X (home or draw)34.7%
12 (either side)78.8%
X2 (draw or away)86.5%
Handicap -1Almeria win46.4%
Push (exactly one goal)22.1%
Loss31.5%
Correct score (top 3)0-210.7%
1-29.7%
1-19.2%

Castellonense vs Almeria stats

Castellonense and Almeria recent form

newest first
Castellonense no matches on record
Almeria DWWWWW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Castellonense vs Almeria head-to-head

No recent meetings on record

Our head-to-head history covers these clubs' top-flight matches from 2014 onwards — these two simply haven't crossed paths in that window (newly promoted sides and cross-division pairings are the usual reason). The prediction doesn't rely on H2H: it is built from each team's current expected-goals ratings.

Castellonense vs Almeria odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 13.9%, draw 21.7%, away 64.3%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 7.41 4.33 1.42
Bet365 6.50 4.20 1.48
BetVictor 7.00 4.20 1.40
Betano 6.60 4.20 1.42
Betfair 7.00 4.40 1.44
Dafabet 6.60 4.60 1.49
Marathonbet 7.40 4.33 1.41
Pinnacle 6.20 4.26 1.44
SBO 5.90 3.89 1.39
William Hill 6.50 4.00 1.44

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 6.60 ▲ +0.10
X 4.23 ▼ -0.12
2 1.43 ▼ -0.01

2 snapshots recorded, from .