Castellonense
vs
Almeria
Garuda Lions Prediction: Almeria
0 – 2 Predicted score · 12% model probability
Castellonense vs Almeria overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Castellonense vs Almeria
| Probability | Castellonense | Draw | Almeria |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 10.6% | 19.2% | 70.2% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 10.6% | 19.2% | 70.2% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Almeria
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.29 vs 0.80.
Castellonense vs Almeria match preview
Castellonense faces Almeria in the Copa del Rey, with kickoff scheduled for October 27, 2026. According to our model, Almeria holds a significant advantage with a 66% probability of winning, while Castellonense has just a 12% chance. The most likely scoreline is 0-2, predicted at 13%. Almeria's recent form is impressive, boasting six consecutive wins, while Castellonense's recent performance is not available.
In terms of expected goals, Castellonense is projected to score 0.74, compared to Almeria's 2.02. The model suggests a 52% probability of over 2.5 goals being scored in the match, and there is a 46% chance that both teams will find the back of the net. The overall confidence grade for this matchup is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Castellonense and Almeria expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.10
Castellonense and Almeria attack and defence ratings
Castellonense
Almeria
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Round of 128 fixtures
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- Calamocha vs Europa Fc — team news & stats
- Manresa v Sant Andreu — match page
- Gimnástica Segoviana vs Cultural Leonesa
- Llanera v Ponferradina — match page
- RSD Alcalá vs Las Palmas — team news & stats
- Atlético Tordesillas vs Mirandes
- Ciudad de Lucena v Rayo Majadahonda — match page
Before and after this match
Castellonense vs Almeria markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Almeria | 70.2% | 1.43 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 59.8% | 1.67 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50.4% | 1.98 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 89.4% | 1.12 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Almeria win | 47.6% | 2.10 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Castellonense | 10.6% |
| Draw | 19.2% | |
| Almeria | 70.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 59.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 40.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50.4% |
| No | 49.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 29.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 80.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 89.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Almeria win | 47.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.5% | |
| Loss | 29.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-2 | 11.9% |
| 0-1 | 9.5% | |
| 1-2 | 9.5% |
Castellonense vs Almeria stats
Castellonense and Almeria recent form
| Castellonense | no matches on record |
| Almeria |
WWWWWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.