Almeria
vs
Real Oviedo
Garuda Lions Prediction: Almeria
2 – 0 Predicted score · 12% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.99 vs 0.79.
- RiskGrade C: weaker evidence — both clubs are rated on goals scored and conceded, not on the chances they created.
Almeria vs Real Oviedo overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Almeria vs Real Oviedo
| Probability | Almeria | Draw | Real Oviedo |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 64.5% | 22.5% | 13.0% |
| Market | 56.5% | 24.5% | 19.0% |
| Final | 58.5% | 24.0% | 17.5% |
| Edge | +2.0% | -0.5% | -1.5% |
Why Almeria
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.99 vs 0.79.
- Better recent form: 6 wins in the last 6 vs 4 for the opposition.
- The market prices Almeria below our published probability: +2.0 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 1.72, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +0.6% per unit staked (our 58.5% × 1.72 − 1).
Almeria vs Real Oviedo match preview
Almeria enters this match with a strong recent form, boasting six consecutive wins. Their expected goals tally stands at 2.06, indicating a potent attacking threat, while Real Oviedo has an expected goals figure of 0.74. The probability of Almeria winning is calculated at 67%, with a most likely scoreline of 2-0, which has a 13% likelihood according to our model.
Real Oviedo's recent performances have been mixed, with their last six matches yielding three wins, two losses, and one draw. The probability of a draw is 21%, and both teams scoring is estimated at 46%. Almeria's dominance in this matchup is reflected in the higher likelihood of a win, while Real Oviedo will aim to upset the odds despite their lower probabilities.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Almeria and Real Oviedo expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.78
Almeria and Real Oviedo attack and defence ratings
Almeria
Real Oviedo
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
Before and after this match
Almeria vs Real Oviedo markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Almeria | 58.5% | 1.71 | +2.0% | 1.72 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 52.6% | 1.90 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 51.8% | 1.93 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 82.5% | 1.21 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Almeria win | 40.6% | 2.47 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Almeria | 58.5% |
| Draw | 24.0% | |
| Real Oviedo | 17.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 52.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 47.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 48.2% |
| No | 51.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 82.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 76.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 41.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Almeria win | 40.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24.0% | |
| Loss | 35.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 12.3% |
| 1-0 | 11.4% | |
| 1-1 | 10.7% |
Almeria vs Real Oviedo stats
Almeria and Real Oviedo recent form
| Almeria |
WWWWWW |
| Real Oviedo |
WWLWLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Almeria and Real Oviedo season so far
Almeria record
- They have won 7 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.6 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Real Oviedo record
- They have won 4 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game on the road against 1.0 at home.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.
Almeria vs Real Oviedo head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Almeria vs Real Oviedo odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 56.4%, draw 24.5%, away 19.1%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.69 | 3.98 | 5.00 |
| Bet365 | 1.70 | 3.70 | 5.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.62 | 3.70 | 4.75 |
| Betano | 1.72 | 3.80 | 4.90 |
| Betfair | 1.62 | 3.80 | 4.75 |
| Dafabet | 1.69 | 3.85 | 5.00 |
| Marathonbet | 1.64 | 3.85 | 4.85 |
| Pinnacle | 1.65 | 3.85 | 5.34 |
| SBO | 1.57 | 3.47 | 4.57 |
| William Hill | 1.65 | 3.60 | 4.80 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
11 snapshots recorded, from .