Real Sociedad II
vs
Almeria
2 – 4 Full time
| 23′ | Brian Cipenga | ||
| 30′ | Daijiro ChirinoJon Morcillo | ||
| 34′ | Dani Diaz | ||
| 37′ | Jorge Pulido | ||
| 38′ | Miguel De La Fuente | ||
| 49′ | Javier Soroeta | ||
| 54′ | Sergio Arribas Calvo | ||
| 58′ | Lander Astiazarán | ||
| 68′ | Javier SoroetaGorka Carrera Zarranz | ||
| 68′ | Gorka GorosabelArkaitz Mariezkurrena | ||
| 68′ | Ibai AguirreJon Eceizabarrena | ||
| 74′ | Brian CipengaNicolás Melamed Ribaudo | ||
| 74′ | Leonardo LeloÁlex Muñoz | ||
| 81′ | Dani DiazAndrews Adjabeng | ||
| 86′ | Miguel De La FuenteLéo Baptistão | ||
| 86′ | Sergio Arribas CalvoQuim junyent | ||
| 88′ | Iker CalderonSydney Osazuwa | ||
| 90′ | Arkaitz Mariezkurrena | ||
| 90′ | Inaki Ruperez |
Match stats
| 21 | Shots | 7 |
|---|---|---|
| 9 | Shots on target | 4 |
| 53 | Possession % | 47 |
| 10 | Corners | 2 |
| 14 | Fouls | 12 |
| 1 | Offsides | 0 |
| 1 | Saves | 7 |
| 401 | Accurate passes | 365 |
Real Sociedad II vs Almeria overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Real Sociedad II vs Almeria
| Probability | Real Sociedad II | Draw | Almeria |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 15.8% | 23.3% | 60.9% |
| Market | 26.0% | 26.3% | 47.7% |
| Final | 23.5% | 25.5% | 51.0% |
| Edge | -10.2% | -3.0% | +13.2% |
Why Almeria
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.97 vs 0.92.
- Better recent form: 6 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Almeria below the model: +13.2 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Real Sociedad II and Almeria expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.88
Real Sociedad II and Almeria attack and defence ratings
Real Sociedad II
Almeria
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Real Sociedad II vs Almeria: result vs prediction
Real Sociedad II 2 – 4 Almeria
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
Before and after this match
Real Sociedad II vs Almeria markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Almeria | 51.0% | 1.96 | +13.2% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55.0% | 1.82 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52.6% | 1.90 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 76.5% | 1.31 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 39.1% | 2.56 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Real Sociedad II | 23.5% |
| Draw | 25.5% | |
| Almeria | 51.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 45.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52.6% |
| No | 47.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 49.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 76.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Almeria win | 37.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.4% | |
| Loss | 39.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.1% |
| 0-2 | 10.8% | |
| 0-1 | 10.0% |
Real Sociedad II vs Almeria stats
Real Sociedad II and Almeria recent form
| Real Sociedad II |
LLLLWD |
| Almeria |
WWWWWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Real Sociedad II and Almeria going into this match
Real Sociedad II record
- They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game on the road against 0.8 at home.
Almeria record
- They have won 7 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.6 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Real Sociedad II vs Almeria head-to-head
Last 4 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-29 | Almeria | Real Sociedad II | Segunda División | 5-1 |
| 2025-08-29 | Real Sociedad II | Almeria | Segunda División | 2-2 |
| 2022-05-13 | Real Sociedad II | Almeria | Segunda División | 0-2 |
| 2021-10-21 | Almeria | Real Sociedad II | Segunda División | 3-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Real Sociedad II vs Almeria odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 27.1%, draw 26.5%, away 46.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.65 | 3.69 | 2.01 |
| Bet365 | 3.70 | 3.50 | 1.95 |
| BetVictor | 3.40 | 3.50 | 1.95 |
| Betano | 3.45 | 3.45 | 2.12 |
| Betfair | 3.20 | 3.60 | 2.00 |
| Dafabet | 3.35 | 3.50 | 2.13 |
| Marathonbet | 3.54 | 3.58 | 1.95 |
| Pinnacle | 3.60 | 3.69 | 2.04 |
| SBO | 2.92 | 3.10 | 2.06 |
| William Hill | 3.40 | 3.30 | 1.95 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
11 snapshots recorded, from .