Real Valladolid
vs
Eldense
Garuda Lions Prediction: Real Valladolid
1 – 0 Predicted score · 10% model probability
Real Valladolid vs Eldense overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Real Valladolid vs Eldense
| Probability | Real Valladolid | Draw | Eldense |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 44.0% | 28.2% | 27.8% |
| Market | 50.8% | 27.2% | 22.1% |
| Final | 49.1% | 27.4% | 23.5% |
| Edge | -6.8% | +1.1% | +5.7% |
Why Real Valladolid
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.49 vs 1.14.
Best available price on the pick: 1.97, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Real Valladolid vs Eldense match preview
Real Valladolid enters the match against Eldense with a probability of winning set at 48%, while a draw stands at 28% and Eldense at 24%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-0, with a 10% chance of occurring. Expected goals suggest Real Valladolid will score 1.49, compared to Eldense's 1.14, indicating a tighter contest than the probabilities might suggest.
In terms of recent form, Real Valladolid has recorded a mixed bag of results with two wins, two draws, and one loss in their last five matches. Eldense, on the other hand, has secured three wins but also faced two losses and a draw in their recent outings. The model indicates a 49% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% likelihood that both teams will score.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Real Valladolid and Eldense expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.62
Real Valladolid and Eldense attack and defence ratings
Real Valladolid
Eldense
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
Before and after this match
Real Valladolid vs Eldense markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Real Valladolid | 49.1% | 2.04 | -6.8% | 1.97 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 51.2% | 1.95 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53.8% | 1.86 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 76.5% | 1.31 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 56.0% | 1.79 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Real Valladolid | 49.1% |
| Draw | 27.4% | |
| Eldense | 23.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 48.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 51.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53.8% |
| No | 46.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 76.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 50.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Real Valladolid win | 22.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.6% | |
| Loss | 56.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.5% |
| 1-0 | 9.5% | |
| 2-1 | 9.1% |
Real Valladolid vs Eldense stats
Real Valladolid and Eldense recent form
| Real Valladolid |
WDWDLW |
| Eldense |
WWLLWD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Real Valladolid and Eldense season so far
Real Valladolid record
- They have won 3 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.
- 48% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Eldense record
- They have won 3 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 0.2 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 9 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
Real Valladolid vs Eldense head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-13 | Real Valladolid | Eldense | Segunda División | 1-0 |
| 2023-10-04 | Eldense | Real Valladolid | Segunda División | 0-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Real Valladolid vs Eldense odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 50.2%, draw 27.3%, away 22.5%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.88 | 3.63 | 4.28 |
| Bet365 | 1.85 | 3.40 | 4.33 |
| BetVictor | 1.80 | 3.40 | 4.10 |
| Betano | 1.95 | 3.40 | 4.15 |
| Betfair | 1.80 | 3.40 | 3.90 |
| Dafabet | 1.97 | 3.40 | 4.00 |
| Marathonbet | 1.82 | 3.52 | 4.15 |
| Pinnacle | 1.85 | 3.46 | 4.44 |
| SBO | 1.89 | 3.02 | 3.45 |
| William Hill | 1.80 | 3.30 | 4.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
12 snapshots recorded, from .