Albacete
vs
Eldense
Garuda Lions Prediction: Eldense
0 – 2 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.91 vs 0.98.
- RiskGrade C: weaker evidence — both clubs are rated on goals scored and conceded, not on the chances they created.
Albacete vs Eldense overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Albacete vs Eldense
| Probability | Albacete | Draw | Eldense |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 17.8% | 24.0% | 58.2% |
| Market | 42.4% | 27.5% | 30.1% |
| Final | 36.3% | 26.6% | 37.1% |
| Edge | -6.2% | -0.9% | +7.0% |
Why Eldense
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.91 vs 0.98.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
- The market prices Eldense below our published probability: +7.0 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 3.19, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +18.5% per unit staked (our 37.1% × 3.19 − 1).
Albacete vs Eldense match preview
Albacete faces Eldense in a Segunda División matchup, with Albacete's recent form showing five losses followed by a draw, while Eldense has recorded three wins, one loss, and another win in their last five matches. The probabilities indicate a competitive encounter, with Albacete at 36% to win, a draw at 26%, and Eldense slightly favored at 38%.
The expected goals suggest a challenging game for Albacete, with an anticipated 0.98 goals compared to Eldense's 1.91. Our model predicts a most likely scoreline of 0-2, with a 55% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% probability that both teams will score. The confidence grade for this match is C, reflecting the uncertainty surrounding the outcome.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Albacete and Eldense expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.89
Albacete and Eldense attack and defence ratings
Albacete
Eldense
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
Before and after this match
Albacete vs Eldense markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Eldense | 37.1% | 2.69 | +7.0% | 3.19 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55.1% | 1.81 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54.1% | 1.85 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 73.4% | 1.36 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 41.8% | 2.39 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Albacete | 36.3% |
| Draw | 26.6% | |
| Eldense | 37.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 44.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54.1% |
| No | 45.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 62.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 63.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Eldense win | 35.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.2% | |
| Loss | 41.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.4% |
| 0-2 | 10.2% | |
| 1-2 | 9.9% |
Albacete vs Eldense stats
Albacete and Eldense recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Albacete and Eldense season so far
Albacete record
- They have won 0 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 0.6 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 9 matches.
Eldense record
- They have won 3 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 0.2 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 9 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
Albacete vs Eldense head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Albacete vs Eldense odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 42.4%, draw 27.4%, away 30.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.21 | 3.65 | 3.18 |
| Bet365 | 2.20 | 3.40 | 3.10 |
| BetVictor | 2.20 | 3.40 | 2.90 |
| Betano | 2.25 | 3.50 | 3.10 |
| Betfair | 2.10 | 3.40 | 3.00 |
| Dafabet | 2.24 | 3.50 | 3.15 |
| Marathonbet | 2.14 | 3.54 | 3.08 |
| Pinnacle | 2.27 | 3.38 | 3.19 |
| SBO | 2.09 | 3.15 | 2.80 |
| William Hill | 2.15 | 3.30 | 2.90 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
11 snapshots recorded, from .