Granada
vs
Real Valladolid
Garuda Lions Prediction: Real Valladolid
1 – 2 Predicted score · 9% model probability
Granada vs Real Valladolid overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Granada vs Real Valladolid
| Probability | Granada | Draw | Real Valladolid |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 35.9% | 26.2% | 37.9% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 35.9% | 26.2% | 37.9% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Real Valladolid
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Granada vs Real Valladolid match preview
Granada faces Real Valladolid in a Segunda División matchup with both teams showing mixed recent form. Granada has recorded two wins, one draw, and three losses in their last six matches, while Real Valladolid has a stronger record with four wins, two draws, and one loss. The probabilities from our model suggest a close contest, with Granada at 36%, a draw at 26%, and Real Valladolid slightly ahead at 38%.
The expected goals are nearly even, with Granada at 1.52 and Real Valladolid at 1.56, indicating a potentially competitive match. Our model predicts a most likely scoreline of 1-2 in favor of Real Valladolid, with a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% likelihood that both teams will score. The confidence grade for this prediction stands at C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Granada and Real Valladolid expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.07
Granada and Real Valladolid attack and defence ratings
Granada
Real Valladolid
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
Before and after this match
Granada vs Real Valladolid markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Real Valladolid | 37.9% | 2.64 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 59.3% | 1.69 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62.7% | 1.60 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 73.8% | 1.35 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 62.1% | 1.61 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Granada | 35.9% |
| Draw | 26.2% | |
| Real Valladolid | 37.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 59.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 40.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62.7% |
| No | 37.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 62.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 64.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Real Valladolid win | 19.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.7% | |
| Loss | 62.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.0% |
| 1-2 | 8.5% | |
| 2-1 | 8.3% |
Granada vs Real Valladolid stats
Granada and Real Valladolid recent form
| Granada |
WWLLDL |
| Real Valladolid |
WDWDLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Granada and Real Valladolid season so far
Granada record
- They have won 4 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Real Valladolid record
- They have won 3 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.
- 48% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Granada vs Real Valladolid head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-14 | Granada | Real Valladolid | Segunda División | 5-1 |
| 2025-11-03 | Real Valladolid | Granada | Segunda División | 2-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.