Leganes
vs
Mallorca
Garuda Lions Prediction: Mallorca
0 – 1 Predicted score · 20% model probability
Leganes vs Mallorca overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Leganes vs Mallorca
| Probability | Leganes | Draw | Mallorca |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 12.6% | 30.7% | 56.7% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 12.6% | 30.7% | 56.7% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Mallorca
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.33 vs 0.49.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Leganes vs Mallorca match preview
In the upcoming Segunda División match, Leganes hosts Mallorca with kickoff scheduled for October 24, 2026. According to our model, Leganes has a 13% chance of winning, while Mallorca is favored with a 57% probability. The most likely scoreline predicted is 0-1, occurring at a rate of 20%. Leganes has struggled recently, recording four consecutive losses followed by a win and another loss. In contrast, Mallorca shows a more favorable form with two wins, a draw, and a loss in their last six matches.
The expected goals for Leganes stand at 0.49, compared to Mallorca's 1.33, indicating a significant disparity in offensive output. Additionally, the probabilities for over 2.5 goals and both teams to score are 28% and 30%, respectively. The head-to-head record in the last two encounters shows Leganes with no wins, one draw, and one loss against Mallorca.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Leganes and Mallorca expected goals
Total expected goals: 1.82
Leganes and Mallorca attack and defence ratings
Leganes
Mallorca
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
Before and after this match
Leganes vs Mallorca markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Mallorca | 56.7% | 1.76 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 72.4% | 1.38 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 70.4% | 1.42 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 87.4% | 1.14 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 43.3% | 2.31 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Leganes | 12.6% |
| Draw | 30.7% | |
| Mallorca | 56.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 27.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 72.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 29.6% |
| No | 70.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 43.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 69.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 87.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Mallorca win | 28.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 28.3% | |
| Loss | 43.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-1 | 20.5% |
| 0-0 | 17.2% | |
| 0-2 | 14.3% |
Leganes vs Mallorca stats
Leganes and Mallorca recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Leganes and Mallorca season so far
Leganes record
- They have won 3 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They average 1.3 goals per game at home against 0.3 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 9 matches.
- 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Mallorca record
- They have won 5 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 0.2 on the road.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 9 matches.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Leganes vs Mallorca head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-19 | Mallorca | Leganes | La Liga | 0-0 |
| 2024-08-31 | Leganes | Mallorca | La Liga | 0-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.