Mallorca
vs
Cadiz
Garuda Lions Prediction: Mallorca
1 – 0 Predicted score · 13% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.32 vs 0.89.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Mallorca is the favourite, not a value bet.
Mallorca vs Cadiz overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Mallorca vs Cadiz
| Probability | Mallorca | Draw | Cadiz |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 45.4% | 30.7% | 23.9% |
| Market | 63.0% | 22.5% | 14.5% |
| Final | 58.6% | 24.6% | 16.8% |
| Edge | -4.4% | +2.1% | +2.4% |
Why Mallorca
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.32 vs 0.89.
Best available price on the pick: 1.52, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -10.9% per unit staked (our 58.6% × 1.52 − 1).
Mallorca vs Cadiz match preview
Mallorca is favored to win against Cadiz with a probability of 60%, while the likelihood of a draw stands at 25% and Cadiz at 15%. The most likely scoreline predicted by the model is 1-0 in favor of Mallorca, occurring with a 15% probability. The expected goals for Mallorca are 1.34, compared to Cadiz's 0.78, indicating a stronger offensive outlook for the home side.
In terms of recent form, Mallorca has recorded two draws, a win, and a loss in their last five matches, while Cadiz's form includes one win, three losses, and a draw. The head-to-head record shows that in their last two encounters, there have been no wins for either side, with both matches ending in draws. The confidence grade for this forecast is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Mallorca and Cadiz expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.21
Mallorca and Cadiz attack and defence ratings
Mallorca
Cadiz
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
Before and after this match
Mallorca vs Cadiz markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Mallorca | 58.6% | 1.71 | -4.4% | 1.52 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 62.0% | 1.61 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 55.6% | 1.80 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 83.2% | 1.20 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 54.6% | 1.83 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Mallorca | 58.6% |
| Draw | 24.6% | |
| Cadiz | 16.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 38.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 62.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 44.4% |
| No | 55.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 83.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 41.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Mallorca win | 21.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.6% | |
| Loss | 54.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.2% |
| 1-0 | 13.2% | |
| 0-0 | 12.3% |
Mallorca vs Cadiz stats
Mallorca and Cadiz recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Mallorca and Cadiz season so far
Mallorca record
- They have won 5 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 0.4 on the road.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 10 matches.
Cadiz record
- They have won 1 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 10 matches.
- 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Mallorca vs Cadiz head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-28 | Cadiz | Mallorca | La Liga | 1-1 |
| 2023-11-29 | Mallorca | Cadiz | La Liga | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Mallorca vs Cadiz odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 63.0%, draw 22.5%, away 14.5%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.51 | 4.28 | 6.91 |
| Bet365 | 1.50 | 4.20 | 6.50 |
| BetVictor | 1.45 | 4.00 | 6.50 |
| Betano | 1.52 | 4.20 | 6.40 |
| Betfair | 1.44 | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.51 | 4.30 | 6.40 |
| Marathonbet | 1.46 | 4.15 | 6.70 |
| Pinnacle | 1.50 | 4.14 | 6.79 |
| SBO | 1.44 | 3.65 | 5.51 |
| William Hill | 1.44 | 3.90 | 6.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
8 snapshots recorded, from .