Cadiz
vs
Real Oviedo
Garuda Lions Prediction: Cadiz
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.03 vs 1.47.
- RiskGrade C: weaker evidence — both clubs are rated on goals scored and conceded, not on the chances they created.
Cadiz vs Real Oviedo overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Cadiz vs Real Oviedo
| Probability | Cadiz | Draw | Real Oviedo |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 49.9% | 23.2% | 26.9% |
| Market | 33.9% | 28.8% | 37.2% |
| Final | 37.9% | 27.4% | 34.7% |
| Edge | +4.0% | -1.4% | -2.6% |
Why Cadiz
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.03 vs 1.47.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices Cadiz below our published probability: +4.0 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.85, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +8.1% per unit staked (our 37.9% × 2.85 − 1).
Cadiz vs Real Oviedo match preview
Cadiz and Real Oviedo are set to face off in the Segunda División with Cadiz holding a slight advantage according to our model, which gives them a 51% probability of winning. The expected goals suggest a strong attacking performance from Cadiz at 1.94, while Real Oviedo is projected at 1.33. The most likely scoreline is 2-1 in favor of Cadiz, with a 10% likelihood.
Both teams have shown mixed form recently, with Cadiz recording two wins, two losses, and a draw in their last five matches. In contrast, Real Oviedo has a record of two wins, two draws, and one loss during the same period. The model indicates a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% probability that both teams will score.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Cadiz and Real Oviedo expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.50
Cadiz and Real Oviedo attack and defence ratings
Cadiz
Real Oviedo
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 13 fixtures
Before and after this match
Cadiz vs Real Oviedo markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Cadiz | 37.9% | 2.64 | +4.0% | 2.85 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 67.9% | 1.47 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 67.8% | 1.48 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 72.6% | 1.38 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 50.1% | 1.99 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Cadiz | 37.9% |
| Draw | 27.4% | |
| Real Oviedo | 34.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 67.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 32.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 67.8% |
| No | 32.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 65.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 62.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Cadiz win | 29.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.3% | |
| Loss | 50.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 9.9% |
| 2-1 | 9.2% | |
| 2-2 | 6.7% |
Cadiz vs Real Oviedo stats
Cadiz and Real Oviedo recent form
| Cadiz |
LWWLLW |
| Real Oviedo |
LDDWWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Cadiz and Real Oviedo season so far
Cadiz record
- They have won 2 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 12 matches.
- 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Real Oviedo record
- They have won 5 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game on the road against 1.2 at home.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 12 matches.
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Cadiz vs Real Oviedo head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-06-01 | Real Oviedo | Cadiz | Segunda División | 2-1 |
| 2024-10-26 | Cadiz | Real Oviedo | Segunda División | 2-0 |
| 2020-07-04 | Cadiz | Real Oviedo | Segunda División | 2-0 |
| 2019-12-15 | Real Oviedo | Cadiz | Segunda División | 0-2 |
| 2019-02-03 | Real Oviedo | Cadiz | Segunda División | 2-1 |
| 2018-09-01 | Cadiz | Real Oviedo | Segunda División | 1-1 |
| 2018-02-10 | Cadiz | Real Oviedo | Segunda División | 2-1 |
| 2017-09-17 | Real Oviedo | Cadiz | Segunda División | 1-0 |
| 2017-03-04 | Real Oviedo | Cadiz | Segunda División | 2-1 |
| 2016-09-25 | Cadiz | Real Oviedo | Segunda División | 0-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Cadiz vs Real Oviedo odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 33.9%, draw 28.8%, away 37.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.80 | 3.34 | 2.60 |
| Bet365 | 2.80 | 3.25 | 2.50 |
| BetVictor | 2.70 | 3.13 | 2.45 |
| Betano | 2.85 | 3.25 | 2.55 |
| Betfair | 2.63 | 3.10 | 2.50 |
| Dafabet | 2.80 | 3.30 | 2.55 |
| Marathonbet | 2.71 | 3.24 | 2.52 |
| Pinnacle | 2.82 | 3.26 | 2.60 |
| SBO | 2.56 | 2.99 | 2.35 |
| William Hill | 2.70 | 3.10 | 2.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
9 snapshots recorded, from .