Cordoba
vs
AD Ceuta FC
Garuda Lions Prediction: Cordoba
2 – 1 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.09 vs 1.23.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Cordoba is the favourite, not a value bet.
Cordoba vs AD Ceuta FC overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Cordoba vs AD Ceuta FC
| Probability | Cordoba | Draw | AD Ceuta FC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 56.3% | 22.7% | 21.0% |
| Market | 62.2% | 20.6% | 17.2% |
| Final | 60.7% | 21.1% | 18.1% |
| Edge | -1.5% | +0.5% | +0.9% |
Why Cordoba
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.09 vs 1.23.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.54, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -6.5% per unit staked (our 60.7% × 1.54 − 1).
Cordoba vs AD Ceuta FC match preview
Cordoba enters this match with a 61% probability of winning, while AD Ceuta FC has an 18% chance. The expected goals for Cordoba stand at 2.14 compared to AD Ceuta FC's 1.34, suggesting a favorable offensive performance for the home side. Recent form shows Cordoba with mixed results, recording two wins and a draw in their last six matches, while AD Ceuta FC has secured two wins in their last six, including a draw.
The most likely scoreline predicted by the model is 2-1 in favor of Cordoba, with a 9% probability. Additionally, there is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals being scored, and both teams are expected to score with a 66% probability. The recent head-to-head encounters indicate a balanced competition, with each team winning once in their last two meetings.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Cordoba and AD Ceuta FC expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.32
Cordoba and AD Ceuta FC attack and defence ratings
Cordoba
AD Ceuta FC
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 13 fixtures
Before and after this match
Cordoba vs AD Ceuta FC markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Cordoba | 60.7% | 1.65 | -1.5% | 1.54 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 64.5% | 1.55 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62.9% | 1.59 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 81.9% | 1.22 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 43.7% | 2.29 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Cordoba | 60.7% |
| Draw | 21.1% | |
| AD Ceuta FC | 18.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 64.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 35.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62.9% |
| No | 37.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 81.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 78.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 39.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | Cordoba win | 34.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.5% | |
| Loss | 43.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.2% |
| 2-1 | 9.7% | |
| 2-0 | 7.9% |
Cordoba vs AD Ceuta FC stats
Cordoba and AD Ceuta FC recent form
| Cordoba |
DLWWLW |
| AD Ceuta FC |
LWLLLD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Cordoba and AD Ceuta FC season so far
Cordoba record
- They have won 5 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
AD Ceuta FC record
- They have won 1 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 12 matches.
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Cordoba vs AD Ceuta FC head-to-head
Last 8 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-25 | AD Ceuta FC | Cordoba | Segunda División | 3-2 |
| 2025-11-02 | Cordoba | AD Ceuta FC | Segunda División | 2-0 |
| 2024-02-18 | AD Ceuta FC | Cordoba | Primera División RFEF - Group 2 | 1-1 |
| 2023-11-12 | Cordoba | AD Ceuta FC | Primera División RFEF - Group 2 | 3-3 |
| 2023-03-12 | Cordoba | AD Ceuta FC | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 | 1-1 |
| 2022-11-06 | AD Ceuta FC | Cordoba | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 | 1-2 |
| 2022-05-08 | Cordoba | AD Ceuta FC | Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 | 3-2 |
| 2021-12-19 | AD Ceuta FC | Cordoba | Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 | 0-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Cordoba vs AD Ceuta FC odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 62.2%, draw 20.6%, away 17.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.54 | 4.69 | 5.62 |
| Bet365 | 1.50 | 4.33 | 5.50 |
| BetVictor | 1.45 | 4.50 | 5.50 |
| Betano | 1.53 | 4.65 | 5.40 |
| Betfair | 1.47 | 4.50 | 5.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.52 | 4.80 | 5.40 |
| Marathonbet | 1.49 | 4.55 | 5.45 |
| Pinnacle | 1.51 | 4.77 | 5.52 |
| SBO | 1.45 | 4.10 | 4.74 |
| William Hill | 1.50 | 4.20 | 5.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
12 snapshots recorded, from .