Sporting Gijon
vs
Real Valladolid
Garuda Lions Prediction: Sporting Gijon
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.81 vs 1.37.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Sporting Gijon is the favourite, not a value bet.
Sporting Gijon vs Real Valladolid overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Sporting Gijon vs Real Valladolid
| Probability | Sporting Gijon | Draw | Real Valladolid |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 46.8% | 25.0% | 28.2% |
| Market | 40.2% | 29.1% | 30.7% |
| Final | 41.8% | 28.1% | 30.1% |
| Edge | +1.7% | -1.0% | -0.6% |
Why Sporting Gijon
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.81 vs 1.37.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 2.44, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +2.1% per unit staked (our 41.8% × 2.44 − 1).
Sporting Gijon vs Real Valladolid match preview
Sporting Gijon faces Real Valladolid in a Segunda División matchup with kickoff scheduled for November 8, 2026. Sporting Gijon has a 43% probability of winning, while Real Valladolid stands at 29%, and a draw is at 28%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-1 in favor of Sporting Gijon, with an expected goals tally of 1.69 for Gijon and 1.17 for Valladolid. Additionally, there is a 55% chance of over 2.5 goals being scored, and both teams are projected to score in 58% of scenarios.
In terms of recent form, Sporting Gijon has recorded four wins and two losses in their last six matches, while Real Valladolid has three wins, two losses, and one draw in the same period. The head-to-head record shows Sporting Gijon with one win and one draw against Real Valladolid, who have yet to secure a win against them in their last two encounters.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Sporting Gijon and Real Valladolid expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.18
Sporting Gijon and Real Valladolid attack and defence ratings
Sporting Gijon
Real Valladolid
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 13 fixtures
Before and after this match
Sporting Gijon vs Real Valladolid markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sporting Gijon | 41.8% | 2.39 | +1.7% | 2.44 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 61.7% | 1.62 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63.5% | 1.58 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 71.9% | 1.39 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 53.2% | 1.88 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sporting Gijon | 41.8% |
| Draw | 28.1% | |
| Real Valladolid | 30.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 61.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 38.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63.5% |
| No | 36.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 69.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 58.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Sporting Gijon win | 26.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.6% | |
| Loss | 53.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.3% |
| 2-1 | 9.3% | |
| 1-2 | 7.1% |
Sporting Gijon vs Real Valladolid stats
Sporting Gijon and Real Valladolid recent form
| Sporting Gijon |
WWLWWW |
| Real Valladolid |
WWLLWD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Sporting Gijon and Real Valladolid season so far
Sporting Gijon record
- They have won 6 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 11 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Real Valladolid record
- They have won 3 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 11 matches.
- 43% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Sporting Gijon vs Real Valladolid head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-22 | Sporting Gijon | Real Valladolid | Segunda División | 2-2 |
| 2025-10-19 | Real Valladolid | Sporting Gijon | Segunda División | 2-3 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Sporting Gijon vs Real Valladolid odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 40.2%, draw 29.1%, away 30.7%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.34 | 3.32 | 3.18 |
| Bet365 | 2.40 | 3.20 | 3.00 |
| BetVictor | 2.30 | 3.20 | 2.90 |
| Betano | 2.37 | 3.25 | 3.10 |
| Betfair | 2.20 | 3.10 | 2.90 |
| Dafabet | 2.39 | 3.20 | 3.10 |
| Marathonbet | 2.27 | 3.22 | 3.08 |
| Pinnacle | 2.44 | 3.06 | 3.22 |
| SBO | 2.24 | 2.97 | 2.73 |
| William Hill | 2.30 | 3.00 | 3.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
10 snapshots recorded, from .