Burgos
vs
Celta de Vigo II
Garuda Lions Prediction: Burgos
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.50 vs 1.15.
- RiskGrade C: weaker evidence — both clubs are rated on goals scored and conceded, not on the chances they created.
Burgos vs Celta de Vigo II overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Burgos vs Celta de Vigo II
| Probability | Burgos | Draw | Celta de Vigo II |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 66.0% | 19.0% | 15.0% |
| Market | 57.1% | 24.5% | 18.4% |
| Final | 59.3% | 23.1% | 17.6% |
| Edge | +2.2% | -1.4% | -0.8% |
Why Burgos
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.50 vs 1.15.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Burgos below our published probability: +2.2 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 1.68, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -0.3% per unit staked (our 59.3% × 1.68 − 1).
Burgos vs Celta de Vigo II match preview
Burgos enters the match against Celta de Vigo II with a strong probability of winning at 69%, while Celta de Vigo II has a 13% chance. The expected goals suggest a dominant performance from Burgos, with an expected tally of 2.60 compared to Celta de Vigo II's 1.10. Recent form indicates Burgos has won three of their last six matches, while Celta de Vigo II has struggled, managing only one win in their last six outings.
Our model predicts a most likely scoreline of 2-1, occurring with a 9% probability. Additionally, there is a 71% chance of over 2.5 goals being scored, and both teams scoring has a 62% likelihood. These statistics highlight Burgos's offensive strength and Celta de Vigo II's defensive vulnerabilities heading into the fixture.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Burgos and Celta de Vigo II expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.66
Burgos and Celta de Vigo II attack and defence ratings
Burgos
Celta de Vigo II
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 13 fixtures
Before and after this match
Burgos vs Celta de Vigo II markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Burgos | 59.3% | 1.69 | +2.2% | 1.68 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 70.7% | 1.41 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63.6% | 1.57 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 82.4% | 1.21 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Burgos win | 45.2% | 2.21 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Burgos | 59.3% |
| Draw | 23.1% | |
| Celta de Vigo II | 17.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 70.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 29.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63.6% |
| No | 36.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 82.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 76.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 40.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Burgos win | 45.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.8% | |
| Loss | 34.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-1 | 9.3% |
| 1-1 | 8.2% | |
| 2-0 | 8.1% |
Burgos vs Celta de Vigo II stats
Burgos and Celta de Vigo II recent form
| Burgos |
DWWWLL |
| Celta de Vigo II |
DLDWLD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Burgos and Celta de Vigo II season so far
Burgos record
- They have won 6 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 12 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Celta de Vigo II record
- They have won 3 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.9 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 12 matches.
- 48% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Burgos vs Celta de Vigo II head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-05-09 | Burgos | Celta de Vigo II | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 | 1-0 |
| 2021-04-18 | Celta de Vigo II | Burgos | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Burgos vs Celta de Vigo II odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 57.1%, draw 24.5%, away 18.4%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.67 | 4.03 | 5.11 |
| Bet365 | 1.62 | 3.75 | 5.50 |
| BetVictor | 1.62 | 3.75 | 4.80 |
| Betano | 1.67 | 3.80 | 5.20 |
| Betfair | 1.62 | 3.70 | 4.60 |
| Dafabet | 1.66 | 3.90 | 5.20 |
| Marathonbet | 1.62 | 3.90 | 4.95 |
| Pinnacle | 1.68 | 4.02 | 5.16 |
| SBO | 1.62 | 3.38 | 4.27 |
| William Hill | 1.62 | 3.70 | 4.75 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
10 snapshots recorded, from .