Leganes
vs
Burgos
Garuda Lions Prediction: Leganes
2 – 1 Predicted score · 5% model probability
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Leganes is the favourite, not a value bet.
Leganes vs Burgos overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Leganes vs Burgos
| Probability | Leganes | Draw | Burgos |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 16.6% | 22.8% | 60.7% |
| Market | 42.9% | 29.7% | 27.4% |
| Final | 36.3% | 28.0% | 35.7% |
| Edge | -6.6% | -1.7% | +8.3% |
Best available price on the pick: 2.24, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -18.7% per unit staked (our 36.3% × 2.24 − 1).
Leganes vs Burgos match preview
Leganes will face Burgos in their upcoming Segunda División match, with the probabilities indicating a close contest. Leganes has a 37% chance of winning, while Burgos stands at 35%, and a draw is estimated at 28%. The most likely scoreline from our model suggests a 2-1 victory for Leganes, with an expected goals tally of 0.96 for Leganes and 1.88 for Burgos. Both teams show a relatively balanced chance of scoring, with 53% likelihood for both teams to find the net.
In terms of recent form, Leganes is struggling with six consecutive matches without a win, while Burgos has shown a stronger performance, winning four of their last six games. The head-to-head record favors Burgos, who has won both of their last encounters against Leganes. With a confidence grade of C, the match could be competitive.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Leganes and Burgos expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.02
Leganes and Burgos attack and defence ratings
Leganes
Burgos
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 14 fixtures
Before and after this match
Leganes vs Burgos markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Leganes | 36.3% | 2.76 | -6.6% | 2.24 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58.2% | 1.72 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55.5% | 1.80 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 72.0% | 1.39 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 83.4% | 1.20 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Leganes | 36.3% |
| Draw | 28.0% | |
| Burgos | 35.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 41.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55.5% |
| No | 44.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 64.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 63.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Leganes win | 6.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 10.6% | |
| Loss | 83.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.8% |
| 0-2 | 10.1% | |
| 1-2 | 10.0% |
Leganes vs Burgos stats
Leganes and Burgos recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Leganes and Burgos season so far
Leganes record
- They have won 3 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 12 matches.
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Burgos record
- They have won 6 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 12 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Leganes vs Burgos head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-31 | Burgos | Leganes | Segunda División | 2-1 |
| 2025-11-01 | Leganes | Burgos | Segunda División | 1-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Leganes vs Burgos odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 42.9%, draw 29.7%, away 27.4%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.22 | 3.30 | 3.46 |
| Bet365 | 2.15 | 3.00 | 3.40 |
| BetVictor | 2.15 | 3.10 | 3.25 |
| Betano | 2.20 | 3.25 | 3.45 |
| Betfair | 2.10 | 3.10 | 3.20 |
| Marathonbet | 2.15 | 3.20 | 3.36 |
| Pinnacle | 2.24 | 3.19 | 3.48 |
| SBO | 2.06 | 2.94 | 3.08 |
| William Hill | 2.15 | 3.10 | 3.25 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
6 snapshots recorded, from .