Granada
vs
Las Palmas
Garuda Lions Prediction: Granada
2 – 1 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.09 vs 1.17.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Granada is the favourite, not a value bet.
Granada vs Las Palmas overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Granada vs Las Palmas
| Probability | Granada | Draw | Las Palmas |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 57.6% | 22.6% | 19.7% |
| Market | 54.5% | 25.4% | 20.1% |
| Final | 55.3% | 24.7% | 20.0% |
| Edge | +0.8% | -0.7% | -0.1% |
Why Granada
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.09 vs 1.17.
- Better recent form: 6 wins in the last 6 vs 4 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.78, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -1.6% per unit staked (our 55.3% × 1.78 − 1).
Granada vs Las Palmas match preview
Granada faces Las Palmas in a Segunda División clash, with Granada holding a 63% probability of winning according to our model. The recent form indicates a strong performance from Granada, who have won their last six matches, while Las Palmas has a mixed record with three wins, two losses, and one draw in their last six games. The expected goals suggest Granada will likely dominate offensively, with an expected total of 2.30 compared to Las Palmas' 1.11.
In terms of scoring, our model predicts a 2-1 victory for Granada as the most likely scoreline, occurring at a 10% probability. Additionally, there is a 66% likelihood of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance that both teams will score in the match. Historically, the last four encounters show that Granada has not secured a win against Las Palmas, with two draws and two losses.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Granada and Las Palmas expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.26
Granada and Las Palmas attack and defence ratings
Granada
Las Palmas
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 14 fixtures
Before and after this match
Granada vs Las Palmas markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Granada | 55.3% | 1.81 | +0.8% | 1.78 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 63.3% | 1.58 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61.3% | 1.63 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 80.0% | 1.25 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 42.4% | 2.36 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Granada | 55.3% |
| Draw | 24.7% | |
| Las Palmas | 20.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 63.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 36.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61.3% |
| No | 38.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 80.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 44.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Granada win | 35.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.8% | |
| Loss | 42.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.3% |
| 2-1 | 9.8% | |
| 2-0 | 8.4% |
Granada vs Las Palmas stats
Granada and Las Palmas recent form
| Granada |
WWWWWW |
| Las Palmas |
WWWWLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Granada and Las Palmas season so far
Granada record
- They have won 6 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 11 matches.
Las Palmas record
- They have won 5 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game on the road against 1.0 at home.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- 44% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Granada vs Las Palmas head-to-head
Last 4 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-02 | Las Palmas | Granada | Segunda División | 2-0 |
| 2025-10-10 | Granada | Las Palmas | Segunda División | 0-0 |
| 2024-02-03 | Granada | Las Palmas | La Liga | 1-1 |
| 2023-09-24 | Las Palmas | Granada | La Liga | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Granada vs Las Palmas odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 54.5%, draw 25.4%, away 20.1%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.74 | 3.92 | 4.75 |
| Bet365 | 1.67 | 3.60 | 4.75 |
| BetVictor | 1.67 | 3.70 | 4.50 |
| Betano | 1.78 | 3.65 | 4.60 |
| Betfair | 1.67 | 3.60 | 4.50 |
| Marathonbet | 1.68 | 3.80 | 4.60 |
| Pinnacle | 1.74 | 3.69 | 4.88 |
| SBO | 1.72 | 3.26 | 3.86 |
| William Hill | 1.70 | 3.50 | 4.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
4 snapshots recorded, from .