Eldense
vs
Granada
Garuda Lions Prediction: Eldense
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Eldense is the favourite, not a value bet.
Eldense vs Granada overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Eldense vs Granada
| Probability | Eldense | Draw | Granada |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 39.2% | 27.0% | 33.8% |
| Market | 41.9% | 27.6% | 30.4% |
| Final | 41.2% | 27.5% | 31.3% |
| Edge | -0.7% | -0.2% | +0.8% |
Best available price on the pick: 2.31, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -4.7% per unit staked (our 41.2% × 2.31 − 1).
Eldense vs Granada match preview
Eldense will host Granada in a Segunda División matchup with kickoff set for November 1, 2026. According to our model, Eldense has a 45% probability of winning, while Granada stands at 29%, and a draw is estimated at 26%. The most likely scoreline is projected to be 2-1 in favor of Eldense, with a 9% likelihood. The expected goals for Eldense are 1.66, compared to 1.30 for Granada.
Both teams have shown mixed recent form, with Eldense recording three wins and two losses in their last six matches, while Granada has secured four wins but also faced two losses in the same period. Our model indicates a 57% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% probability that both teams will score during the match.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Eldense and Granada expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.90
Eldense and Granada attack and defence ratings
Eldense
Granada
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
Before and after this match
Eldense vs Granada markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Eldense | 41.2% | 2.42 | -0.7% | 2.31 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55.4% | 1.80 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 59.7% | 1.68 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 72.5% | 1.38 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 60.8% | 1.64 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Eldense | 41.2% |
| Draw | 27.5% | |
| Granada | 31.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 44.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 59.7% |
| No | 40.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 68.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 58.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Eldense win | 19.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.5% | |
| Loss | 60.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.7% |
| 2-1 | 8.7% | |
| 1-2 | 8.0% |
Eldense vs Granada stats
Eldense and Granada recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Eldense and Granada season so far
Eldense record
- They have won 4 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 10 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
Granada record
- They have won 5 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Eldense vs Granada head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Eldense vs Granada odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 41.9%, draw 27.6%, away 30.4%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.27 | 3.51 | 3.16 |
| BetVictor | 2.20 | 3.30 | 3.00 |
| Betano | 2.30 | 3.40 | 3.10 |
| Marathonbet | 2.20 | 3.40 | 3.06 |
| Pinnacle | 2.31 | 3.38 | 3.12 |
| William Hill | 2.20 | 3.20 | 3.00 |