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Segunda División · ·Matchday 12

Real Sociedad II vs Girona

Garuda Lions Prediction: Girona

1 – 2 Predicted score · 10% model probability

  • WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.31 vs 1.02.
  • RiskGrade C: weaker evidence — both clubs are rated on goals scored and conceded, not on the chances they created.
Bet on Girona

Estadio Zubieta, San Sebastian

Real Sociedad II 26%
Draw 24%
Girona 50%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Chance Girona wins
50%
most likely outcome
Chance of a goal
96%
at least one goal in the match
Both teams score
58%
goals at both ends
Most likely score with our pick
1 – 2
10% of simulated outcomes

Real Sociedad II vs Girona overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Real Sociedad II vs Girona

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityReal Sociedad IIDrawGirona
Model14.4%20.2%65.4%
Market29.6%25.2%45.2%
Final25.8%23.9%50.3%
Edge-3.8%-1.2%+5.1%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Why Girona

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.31 vs 1.02.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Girona below our published probability: +5.1 percentage points of edge.

Best available price on the pick: 2.13, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +7.0% per unit staked (our 50.3% × 2.13 − 1).

Real Sociedad II vs Girona match preview

Real Sociedad II faces Girona in their upcoming Segunda División match, with Girona holding a significant advantage according to our model. Girona is given a 56% probability of winning, while Real Sociedad II has a 20% chance. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-2 in favor of Girona, with an expected goals tally of 1.08 for Real Sociedad II and 1.92 for Girona.

Recent form shows Real Sociedad II struggling with five consecutive losses, while Girona has had a mixed run, including two wins and a draw in their last five matches. The probabilities indicate a 58% likelihood of over 2.5 goals and a 57% chance for both teams to score, reflecting an expectation of an engaging match with potential for multiple goals.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Real Sociedad ↓ / Girona → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 7% 10% 7% 7% 1 9% 10% 8% 7% 2 5% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 96%
2+ goals 85%
3+ goals 65%
No goals 4%

Real Sociedad II and Girona expected goals

Real Sociedad II 1.02
Girona 2.31

Total expected goals: 3.33

Real Sociedad II and Girona attack and defence ratings

Real Sociedad II

Attack 0.97 -3%
Defence 1.47 +47%

Girona

Attack 1.34 +34%
Defence 0.72 -28%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Other Matchday 12 fixtures

Segunda División

Before and after this match

Real Sociedad II vs Girona markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Girona 50.3% 1.99 +5.1% 2.13
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 64.7% 1.55 — —
Both teams to score Yes 58.4% 1.71 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 76.1% 1.31 — —
Handicap -1 Girona win 43.6% 2.29 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Real Sociedad II25.8%
Draw23.9%
Girona50.3%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.564.7%
Under 2.535.3%
Both teams to scoreYes58.4%
No41.6%
Double chance1X (home or draw)49.7%
12 (either side)76.1%
X2 (draw or away)74.2%
Handicap -1Girona win43.6%
Push (exactly one goal)21.8%
Loss34.6%
Correct score (top 3)1-29.7%
0-29.6%
1-19.3%
Compare prices for this pick

Real Sociedad II vs Girona stats

Real Sociedad II and Girona recent form

newest first
Real Sociedad II LLLLLL
Girona WWDDWW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Real Sociedad II and Girona season so far

league record

Real Sociedad II record

  • They have won 2 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
  • They average 1.8 goals per game on the road against 1.0 at home.

Girona record

  • They have won 5 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 10 matches.
  • 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Real Sociedad II vs Girona head-to-head

No recent meetings on record

Our head-to-head history covers these clubs' top-flight matches from 2014 onwards — these two simply haven't crossed paths in that window (newly promoted sides and cross-division pairings are the usual reason). The prediction doesn't rely on H2H: it is built from each team's current expected-goals ratings.

Real Sociedad II vs Girona odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 29.6%, draw 25.2%, away 45.2%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 3.24 3.80 2.13
BetVictor 3.10 3.60 2.05
Betano 3.30 3.80 2.07
Betfair 3.10 3.70 1.95
Marathonbet 3.14 3.68 2.06
Pinnacle 3.26 3.82 2.08
William Hill 3.10 3.50 2.05
Find the best place to bet

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 3.14 ▼ -0.05
X 3.70 ▼ -0.05
2 2.06 —

2 snapshots recorded, from .

Prediction snapshot 2 Girona Predicted score 1 – 2 Low Bet Now
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