Albacete
vs
Sabadell
Garuda Lions Prediction: Sabadell
0 – 1 Predicted score · 13% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.28 vs 0.89.
- RiskGrade C: weaker evidence — both clubs are rated on goals scored and conceded, not on the chances they created.
Albacete vs Sabadell overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Albacete vs Sabadell
| Probability | Albacete | Draw | Sabadell |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 24.6% | 31.3% | 44.1% |
| Market | 36.6% | 29.7% | 33.7% |
| Final | 33.6% | 30.1% | 36.3% |
| Edge | -3.0% | +0.4% | +2.6% |
Why Sabadell
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.28 vs 0.89.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Sabadell below our published probability: +2.6 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.89, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +4.8% per unit staked (our 36.3% × 2.89 − 1).
Albacete vs Sabadell match preview
Albacete faces Sabadell in the Segunda División, with kickoff scheduled for October 31, 2026. According to our model, Albacete has a 20% chance of winning, while Sabadell holds a 50% probability of victory, and a draw stands at 30%. The most likely scoreline is 0-1 in favor of Sabadell, projected at 14%. Albacete's expected goals are 0.79, compared to Sabadell's 1.41.
In terms of recent form, Albacete has struggled, recording five consecutive losses followed by a draw, while Sabadell's last five matches include two wins, two draws, and one loss. The likelihood of over 2.5 goals is estimated at 38%, and both teams scoring has a probability of 42%. The confidence grade for this matchup is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Albacete and Sabadell expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.17
Albacete and Sabadell attack and defence ratings
Albacete
Sabadell
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
Before and after this match
Albacete vs Sabadell markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sabadell | 36.3% | 2.76 | +2.6% | 2.89 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 63.1% | 1.58 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 56.2% | 1.78 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 69.9% | 1.43 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 55.9% | 1.79 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Albacete | 33.6% |
| Draw | 30.1% | |
| Sabadell | 36.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 36.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 63.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 43.8% |
| No | 56.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 63.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 69.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 66.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Sabadell win | 20.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.4% | |
| Loss | 55.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.3% |
| 0-1 | 13.3% | |
| 0-0 | 12.7% |
Albacete vs Sabadell stats
Albacete and Sabadell recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Albacete and Sabadell season so far
Albacete record
- They have won 0 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 0.6 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 10 matches.
Sabadell record
- They have won 4 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 0.5 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 10 matches.
Albacete vs Sabadell head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Albacete vs Sabadell odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 36.6%, draw 29.7%, away 33.7%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.60 | 3.26 | 2.85 |
| BetVictor | 2.45 | 3.13 | 2.70 |
| Betano | 2.65 | 3.15 | 2.80 |
| Marathonbet | 2.52 | 3.16 | 2.76 |
| Pinnacle | 2.59 | 3.15 | 2.89 |
| William Hill | 2.50 | 3.00 | 2.70 |