Sabadell
vs
Real Sociedad II
Garuda Lions Prediction: Sabadell
1 – 0 Predicted score · 11% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.61 vs 0.94.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Sabadell is the favourite, not a value bet.
Sabadell vs Real Sociedad II overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Sabadell vs Real Sociedad II
| Probability | Sabadell | Draw | Real Sociedad II |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 51.9% | 27.3% | 20.8% |
| Market | 55.0% | 25.8% | 19.3% |
| Final | 54.2% | 26.2% | 19.7% |
| Edge | -0.8% | +0.4% | +0.4% |
Why Sabadell
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.61 vs 0.94.
Best available price on the pick: 1.75, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -5.2% per unit staked (our 54.2% × 1.75 − 1).
Sabadell vs Real Sociedad II match preview
Sabadell enters this match with a probability of 57% to win, while Real Sociedad II has a 19% chance of victory. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-0, with an 11% likelihood. Sabadell has shown mixed recent form, with their last six matches resulting in one win, two draws, and three losses. In contrast, Real Sociedad II has struggled significantly, losing their last six matches.
In terms of expected goals, Sabadell is projected to score 1.61, while Real Sociedad II is expected to net 0.94. The model indicates a 47% chance for over 2.5 goals and a 50% likelihood that both teams will score. The confidence grade for this matchup is C, reflecting some uncertainty in the predictions.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Sabadell and Real Sociedad II expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.55
Sabadell and Real Sociedad II attack and defence ratings
Sabadell
Real Sociedad II
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 13 fixtures
Before and after this match
Sabadell vs Real Sociedad II markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sabadell | 54.2% | 1.85 | -0.8% | 1.75 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 53.2% | 1.88 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 50.1% | 1.99 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 80.3% | 1.24 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 48.1% | 2.08 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sabadell | 54.2% |
| Draw | 26.2% | |
| Real Sociedad II | 19.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 46.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 53.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 49.9% |
| No | 50.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 80.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 45.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Sabadell win | 28.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.6% | |
| Loss | 48.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.0% |
| 1-0 | 11.4% | |
| 2-0 | 10.1% |
Sabadell vs Real Sociedad II stats
Sabadell and Real Sociedad II recent form
| Sabadell |
LDLWDD |
| Real Sociedad II |
WLLLLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Sabadell and Real Sociedad II season so far
Sabadell record
- They have won 4 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 0.5 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 11 matches.
Real Sociedad II record
- They have won 2 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game on the road against 1.0 at home.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 11 matches.
Sabadell vs Real Sociedad II head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Sabadell vs Real Sociedad II odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 55.0%, draw 25.8%, away 19.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.71 | 3.84 | 5.05 |
| Bet365 | 1.73 | 3.60 | 4.75 |
| BetVictor | 1.67 | 3.50 | 4.80 |
| Betano | 1.75 | 3.65 | 4.90 |
| Betfair | 1.65 | 3.50 | 4.60 |
| Dafabet | 1.73 | 3.70 | 5.00 |
| Marathonbet | 1.66 | 3.72 | 4.90 |
| Pinnacle | 1.70 | 3.73 | 5.13 |
| SBO | 1.70 | 3.20 | 4.06 |
| William Hill | 1.67 | 3.50 | 4.60 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
8 snapshots recorded, from .