Eldense
vs
Sabadell
Garuda Lions Prediction: Eldense
1 – 0 Predicted score · 13% model probability
- WhyBetter recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Eldense is the favourite, not a value bet.
Eldense vs Sabadell overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Eldense vs Sabadell
| Probability | Eldense | Draw | Sabadell |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 32.2% | 35.2% | 32.5% |
| Market | 37.3% | 29.1% | 33.7% |
| Final | 36.0% | 30.6% | 33.4% |
| Edge | -1.3% | +1.5% | -0.3% |
Why Eldense
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 2.60, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -6.4% per unit staked (our 36.0% × 2.60 − 1).
Eldense vs Sabadell match preview
Eldense faces Sabadell in a Segunda División matchup with a predicted outcome favoring Eldense at 39%, while Sabadell holds a 31% chance of winning, and a draw sits at 30%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0 in favor of Eldense, with a 13% probability. The expected goals for Eldense are 1.12, compared to Sabadell's 0.96, indicating a slight edge for the home side.
In terms of recent form, Eldense has secured three wins in their last six matches, while Sabadell has struggled with one win and two draws in the same span. The model estimates a 34% chance for over 2.5 goals and a 43% probability that both teams will score, suggesting a competitive encounter ahead.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Eldense and Sabadell expected goals
Total expected goals: 1.83
Eldense and Sabadell attack and defence ratings
Eldense
Sabadell
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 14 fixtures
Before and after this match
Eldense vs Sabadell markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Eldense | 36.0% | 2.78 | -1.3% | 2.60 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 72.3% | 1.38 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 62.7% | 1.59 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 69.4% | 1.44 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 67.8% | 1.48 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Eldense | 36.0% |
| Draw | 30.6% | |
| Sabadell | 33.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 27.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 72.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 37.3% |
| No | 62.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 66.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 69.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 64.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Eldense win | 11.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.3% | |
| Loss | 67.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-0 | 17.4% |
| 1-1 | 14.8% | |
| 0-1 | 13.4% |
Eldense vs Sabadell stats
Eldense and Sabadell recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Eldense and Sabadell season so far
Eldense record
- They have won 4 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 12 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
Sabadell record
- They have won 4 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 0.6 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 12 matches.
Eldense vs Sabadell head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Eldense vs Sabadell odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 37.3%, draw 29.1%, away 33.7%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.57 | 3.30 | 2.86 |
| Bet365 | 2.50 | 3.20 | 2.75 |
| BetVictor | 2.45 | 3.13 | 2.75 |
| Betano | 2.57 | 3.20 | 2.87 |
| Betfair | 2.45 | 3.10 | 2.70 |
| Marathonbet | 2.49 | 3.20 | 2.77 |
| Pinnacle | 2.60 | 3.21 | 2.86 |
| William Hill | 2.45 | 3.00 | 2.75 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
4 snapshots recorded, from .