Utebo
vs
Sabadell
Garuda Lions Prediction: Sabadell
0 – 1 Predicted score · 16% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.76 vs 0.60.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Sabadell is the favourite, not a value bet.
Utebo vs Sabadell overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Utebo vs Sabadell
| Probability | Utebo | Draw | Sabadell |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 11.0% | 24.4% | 64.6% |
| Market | 17.4% | 25.6% | 57.0% |
| Final | 15.8% | 25.3% | 58.9% |
| Edge | -1.6% | -0.3% | +1.9% |
Why Sabadell
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.76 vs 0.60.
- Better recent form: 1 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.75, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +3.0% per unit staked (our 58.9% × 1.75 − 1).
Utebo vs Sabadell match preview
Utebo faces Sabadell in the Copa del Rey with a challenging outlook, as the probabilities indicate a 16% chance of victory for Utebo compared to 59% for Sabadell. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 0-1, occurring with a 16% probability. Utebo's recent form shows two consecutive losses, while Sabadell has recorded a draw, two losses, a win, and another draw in their last five matches.
In terms of expected goals, Utebo is projected to score 0.60, while Sabadell is expected to net 1.76. The likelihood of over 2.5 goals stands at 42%, and both teams scoring is estimated at 38%. With a confidence grade of C, this match presents a competitive dynamic as Utebo looks to improve against a more favored Sabadell side.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Utebo and Sabadell expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.35
Utebo and Sabadell attack and defence ratings
Utebo
Sabadell
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Round of 128 fixtures
Before and after this match
Utebo vs Sabadell markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sabadell | 58.9% | 1.70 | +1.9% | 1.75 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 58.2% | 1.72 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 61.9% | 1.62 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 84.2% | 1.19 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Sabadell win | 38.5% | 2.60 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Utebo | 15.8% |
| Draw | 25.3% | |
| Sabadell | 58.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 41.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 58.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 38.1% |
| No | 61.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 41.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 84.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Sabadell win | 38.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 26.1% | |
| Loss | 35.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-1 | 15.7% |
| 0-2 | 14.7% | |
| 1-1 | 10.9% |
Utebo vs Sabadell stats
Utebo and Sabadell recent form
| Utebo |
LL |
| Sabadell |
DLDLWD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 2 completed matches.
Utebo vs Sabadell head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Utebo vs Sabadell odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 17.4%, draw 25.7%, away 56.9%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 5.56 | 3.72 | 1.61 |
| Bet365 | 5.75 | 3.50 | 1.67 |
| BetVictor | 5.25 | 3.50 | 1.62 |
| Betano | 4.90 | 3.55 | 1.65 |
| Betfair | 4.75 | 3.60 | 1.75 |
| Dafabet | 5.80 | 3.70 | 1.68 |
| Marathonbet | 5.30 | 3.78 | 1.61 |
| Pinnacle | 4.48 | 3.39 | 1.59 |
| SBO | 4.84 | 3.53 | 1.52 |
| William Hill | 6.00 | 3.60 | 1.55 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
24 snapshots recorded, from .