Utebo
vs
Sabadell
Garuda Lions Prediction: Sabadell
0 – 2 Predicted score · 14% model probability
Utebo vs Sabadell overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Utebo vs Sabadell
| Probability | Utebo | Draw | Sabadell |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 9.4% | 20.5% | 70.0% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 9.4% | 20.5% | 70.0% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Sabadell
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.08 vs 0.64.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Utebo vs Sabadell match preview
Utebo faces Sabadell in the Copa del Rey with a significant disparity in expected performance. Utebo has a 9% chance of winning, while Sabadell holds a 70% probability of securing a victory. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 0-2, occurring at a rate of 14%. Utebo's expected goals stand at 0.64, contrasting sharply with Sabadell's 2.08.
In terms of recent form, Utebo has struggled, losing their last two matches, while Sabadell has shown more resilience with a record of one win, two draws, and one loss in their last five games. The probabilities indicate a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 42% likelihood that both teams will score, reflecting Sabadell's stronger attacking potential.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Utebo and Sabadell expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.72
Utebo and Sabadell attack and defence ratings
Utebo
Sabadell
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Round of 128 fixtures
Before and after this match
Utebo vs Sabadell markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sabadell | 70.0% | 1.43 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 51.2% | 1.95 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 57.6% | 1.74 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 90.6% | 1.10 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Sabadell win | 45.8% | 2.18 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Utebo | 9.4% |
| Draw | 20.5% | |
| Sabadell | 70.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 51.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 48.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 42.4% |
| No | 57.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 30.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 79.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 90.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Sabadell win | 45.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24.2% | |
| Loss | 30.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-2 | 14.2% |
| 0-1 | 12.8% | |
| 0-3 | 9.8% |
Utebo vs Sabadell stats
Utebo and Sabadell recent form
| Utebo |
LL |
| Sabadell |
WDDWLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 2 completed matches.