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Segunda División · ·Matchday 14

Real Sociedad II vs Sporting Gijon

Garuda Lions Prediction: Sporting Gijon

0 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability

  • WhyBetter recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
  • RiskNo edge: the market already prices this, so it is not a value bet.
Bet on Sporting Gijon

Estadio Zubieta, San Sebastian

Real Sociedad II 35%
Draw 28%
Sporting Gijon 37%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Chance Sporting Gijon wins
37%
most likely outcome
Chance of a goal
92%
at least one goal in the match
Both teams score
55%
goals at both ends
Most likely score with our pick
0 – 1
9% of simulated outcomes

Real Sociedad II vs Sporting Gijon overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Real Sociedad II vs Sporting Gijon

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityReal Sociedad IIDrawSporting Gijon
Model29.7%28.2%42.1%
Market36.2%28.0%35.8%
Final34.5%28.1%37.4%
Edge-1.6%+0.0%+1.6%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Why Sporting Gijon

  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Best available price on the pick: 2.81, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +5.0% per unit staked (our 37.4% × 2.81 − 1).

Real Sociedad II vs Sporting Gijon match preview

Real Sociedad II faces Sporting Gijon in their upcoming Segunda División match, with the probabilities indicating a close contest. According to our model, Real Sociedad II has a 35% chance of winning, while Sporting Gijon is slightly favored at 37%. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, with an expected goals tally of 1.20 for Real Sociedad II and 1.46 for Sporting Gijon.

In terms of recent form, Real Sociedad II has struggled, recording one draw and five losses in their last six matches. Conversely, Sporting Gijon has shown better form, with four wins in their last six outings. The head-to-head record also favors Sporting Gijon, who has won both of the last two encounters against Real Sociedad II.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Real Sociedad ↓ / Sporting Gijon → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 8% 9% 7% 1 7% 13% 9% 2 7% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 92%
2+ goals 76%
3+ goals 50%
No goals 8%

Real Sociedad II and Sporting Gijon expected goals

Real Sociedad II 1.20
Sporting Gijon 1.46

Total expected goals: 2.66

Real Sociedad II and Sporting Gijon attack and defence ratings

Real Sociedad II

Attack 0.84 -16%
Defence 1.19 +19%

Sporting Gijon

Attack 1.04 +4%
Defence 0.97 -3%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Other Matchday 14 fixtures

Segunda División

Before and after this match

Real Sociedad II vs Sporting Gijon markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Sporting Gijon 37.4% 2.68 +1.6% 2.81
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 50.3% 1.99 — —
Both teams to score Yes 54.9% 1.82 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 71.9% 1.39 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 57.9% 1.73 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Real Sociedad II34.5%
Draw28.1%
Sporting Gijon37.4%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.549.7%
Under 2.550.3%
Both teams to scoreYes54.9%
No45.1%
Double chance1X (home or draw)62.6%
12 (either side)71.9%
X2 (draw or away)65.5%
Handicap -1Sporting Gijon win21.0%
Push (exactly one goal)21.0%
Loss57.9%
Correct score (top 3)1-113.5%
0-19.0%
1-29.0%
Compare prices for this pick

Real Sociedad II vs Sporting Gijon stats

Real Sociedad II and Sporting Gijon recent form

newest first
Real Sociedad II DWLLLL
Sporting Gijon LWWLWW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Real Sociedad II and Sporting Gijon season so far

league record

Real Sociedad II record

  • They have won 3 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
  • They average 1.5 goals per game on the road against 1.0 at home.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 12 matches.

Sporting Gijon record

  • They have won 7 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
  • They have kept 5 clean sheets in 12 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 5 of 12 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.

Real Sociedad II vs Sporting Gijon head-to-head

Last 2 meetings

0Real Sociedad II wins 0Draws 2Sporting Gijon wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-04-06Sporting GijonReal Sociedad IISegunda División1-0
2025-12-06Real Sociedad IISporting GijonSegunda División0-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Real Sociedad II vs Sporting Gijon odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 36.2%, draw 28.0%, away 35.8%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 2.61 3.40 2.74
Bet365 2.80 3.30 2.35
BetVictor 2.55 3.30 2.50
Betano 2.75 3.40 2.55
Betfair 2.50 3.20 2.55
Marathonbet 2.53 3.30 2.65
Pinnacle 2.57 3.32 2.81
William Hill 2.50 3.10 2.62
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Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.56 ▲ +0.15
X 3.30 ▼ -0.23
2 2.58 ▼ -0.33

4 snapshots recorded, from .

Prediction snapshot 2 Sporting Gijon Predicted score 0 – 1 Low Bet Now
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