Eibar
vs
Cadiz
Garuda Lions Prediction: Eibar
2 – 1 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.85 vs 1.21.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Eibar is the favourite, not a value bet.
Eibar vs Cadiz overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Eibar vs Cadiz
| Probability | Eibar | Draw | Cadiz |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 51.1% | 24.9% | 24.0% |
| Market | 57.4% | 24.2% | 18.4% |
| Final | 55.9% | 24.4% | 19.8% |
| Edge | -1.6% | +0.2% | +1.4% |
Why Eibar
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.85 vs 1.21.
Best available price on the pick: 1.67, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -6.7% per unit staked (our 55.9% × 1.67 − 1).
Eibar vs Cadiz match preview
Eibar hosts Cadiz in a Segunda División clash on November 15, 2026. Eibar has a 56% probability of winning, while Cadiz stands at 20%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-1 in favor of Eibar, with an expected goals tally of 1.84 for Eibar and 1.21 for Cadiz. Both teams have shown mixed recent form, with Eibar recording two wins in their last six matches, while Cadiz has also struggled, winning only two of their last six.
In terms of goal-scoring potential, our model indicates a 59% likelihood of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance that both teams will score. The head-to-head record between these teams shows Eibar and Cadiz each winning one match in their last two encounters. The confidence grade for this matchup is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Eibar and Cadiz expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.06
Eibar and Cadiz attack and defence ratings
Eibar
Cadiz
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 14 fixtures
Before and after this match
Eibar vs Cadiz markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Eibar | 55.9% | 1.79 | -1.6% | 1.67 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 59.0% | 1.69 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60.3% | 1.66 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 80.2% | 1.25 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 48.9% | 2.05 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Eibar | 55.9% |
| Draw | 24.4% | |
| Cadiz | 19.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 59.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 41.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60.3% |
| No | 39.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 80.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 44.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Eibar win | 29.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.7% | |
| Loss | 48.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.6% |
| 2-1 | 9.7% | |
| 2-0 | 8.0% |
Eibar vs Cadiz stats
Eibar and Cadiz recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Eibar and Cadiz season so far
Eibar record
- They have won 7 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 7 matches.
- 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Cadiz record
- They have won 2 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 12 matches.
- 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Eibar vs Cadiz head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-01 | Eibar | Cadiz | Segunda División | 3-1 |
| 2025-09-13 | Cadiz | Eibar | Segunda División | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Eibar vs Cadiz odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 57.4%, draw 24.2%, away 18.4%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.63 | 4.23 | 5.21 |
| Bet365 | 1.62 | 3.70 | 5.25 |
| BetVictor | 1.60 | 3.80 | 4.80 |
| Betano | 1.67 | 3.95 | 5.00 |
| Betfair | 1.60 | 3.80 | 4.60 |
| Marathonbet | 1.58 | 4.10 | 5.05 |
| Pinnacle | 1.62 | 4.06 | 5.28 |
| SBO | 1.58 | 3.50 | 4.36 |
| William Hill | 1.60 | 3.80 | 4.80 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
3 snapshots recorded, from .