Tenerife
vs
AD Ceuta FC
Garuda Lions Prediction: Tenerife
2 – 0 Predicted score · 11% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.05 vs 0.93.
- RiskGrade C: weaker evidence — both clubs are rated on goals scored and conceded, not on the chances they created.
Tenerife vs AD Ceuta FC overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Tenerife vs AD Ceuta FC
| Probability | Tenerife | Draw | AD Ceuta FC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 62.2% | 22.5% | 15.4% |
| Market | 49.9% | 26.9% | 23.2% |
| Final | 53.0% | 25.8% | 21.2% |
| Edge | +3.1% | -1.1% | -1.9% |
Why Tenerife
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.05 vs 0.93.
- The market prices Tenerife below our published probability: +3.1 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 1.92, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +1.7% per unit staked (our 53.0% × 1.92 − 1).
Tenerife vs AD Ceuta FC match preview
Tenerife faces AD Ceuta FC in a Segunda División clash, with our model giving Tenerife a 62% probability of winning, while AD Ceuta FC has a 15% chance. The most likely scoreline predicted is 2-0 in favor of Tenerife, occurring 11% of the time. The expected goals for Tenerife stand at 2.04, compared to 0.93 for AD Ceuta FC, indicating a significant offensive advantage for the home side.
Recent form shows Tenerife struggling with four draws and a loss in their last six matches, while AD Ceuta FC has lost five of their last six games, only managing one win. The model suggests a 57% likelihood of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance that both teams will score, reflecting an expectation of a competitive match.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Tenerife and AD Ceuta FC expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.98
Tenerife and AD Ceuta FC attack and defence ratings
Tenerife
AD Ceuta FC
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 14 fixtures
Before and after this match
Tenerife vs AD Ceuta FC markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Tenerife | 53.0% | 1.89 | +3.1% | 1.92 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57.3% | 1.75 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53.8% | 1.86 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 78.8% | 1.27 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Tenerife win | 39.1% | 2.56 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Tenerife | 53.0% |
| Draw | 25.8% | |
| AD Ceuta FC | 21.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 42.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53.8% |
| No | 46.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 78.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 47.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Tenerife win | 39.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.1% | |
| Loss | 37.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.7% |
| 2-0 | 10.6% | |
| 2-1 | 9.9% |
Tenerife vs AD Ceuta FC stats
Tenerife and AD Ceuta FC recent form
| Tenerife |
DDDDLD |
| AD Ceuta FC |
LLWLLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Tenerife and AD Ceuta FC season so far
Tenerife record
- They have won 3 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
AD Ceuta FC record
- They have won 1 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 12 matches.
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Tenerife vs AD Ceuta FC head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Tenerife vs AD Ceuta FC odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 49.9%, draw 26.9%, away 23.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.92 | 3.56 | 4.14 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
4 snapshots recorded, from .