Badajoz
vs
Tenerife
Garuda Lions Prediction: Tenerife
1 – 2 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.73 vs 1.13.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Tenerife is the favourite, not a value bet.
Badajoz vs Tenerife overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Badajoz vs Tenerife
| Probability | Badajoz | Draw | Tenerife |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 23.7% | 26.0% | 50.3% |
| Market | 19.5% | 25.0% | 55.5% |
| Final | 20.5% | 25.3% | 54.2% |
| Edge | +1.0% | +0.2% | -1.3% |
Why Tenerife
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.73 vs 1.13.
Best available price on the pick: 1.74, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -5.7% per unit staked (our 54.2% × 1.74 − 1).
Badajoz vs Tenerife match preview
Badajoz faces Tenerife in the Copa del Rey with a kickoff scheduled for November 18, 2026. According to our model, Badajoz has a 21% chance of winning, while Tenerife is favored at 54%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-2, with an expected goals tally of 1.13 for Badajoz and 1.73 for Tenerife.
Tenerife's recent form shows four draws and one loss in their last six matches, indicating a struggle to secure victories. Our model suggests a 54% probability for over 2.5 goals and a 57% chance that both teams will score. The confidence grade for this matchup is C, reflecting some uncertainty in the predictions.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Badajoz and Tenerife expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.86
Badajoz and Tenerife attack and defence ratings
Badajoz
Tenerife
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Round of 128 fixtures
Before and after this match
Badajoz vs Tenerife markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Tenerife | 54.2% | 1.85 | -1.3% | 1.74 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54.4% | 1.84 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56.7% | 1.76 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 79.5% | 1.26 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 49.7% | 2.01 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Badajoz | 20.5% |
| Draw | 25.3% | |
| Tenerife | 54.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 45.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56.7% |
| No | 43.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 45.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 79.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Tenerife win | 28.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.2% | |
| Loss | 49.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.3% |
| 1-2 | 9.7% | |
| 0-1 | 8.8% |
Badajoz vs Tenerife stats
Badajoz and Tenerife recent form
| Badajoz |
no matches on record |
| Tenerife |
DDDDLD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Badajoz vs Tenerife head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Badajoz vs Tenerife odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 19.5%, draw 25.0%, away 55.5%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 4.62 | 3.58 | 1.74 |
| Bet365 | 5.00 | 3.90 | 1.67 |
| BetVictor | 4.60 | 3.60 | 1.67 |
| Betano | 4.75 | 3.70 | 1.65 |
| Betfair | 4.60 | 3.75 | 1.73 |
| Dafabet | 5.20 | 4.00 | 1.67 |
| Marathonbet | 5.10 | 3.66 | 1.65 |
| Pinnacle | 4.16 | 3.37 | 1.71 |
| William Hill | 5.50 | 3.75 | 1.57 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
28 snapshots recorded, from .