Real Oviedo
vs
Girona
Garuda Lions Prediction: Girona
1 – 2 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.59 vs 1.27.
- RiskGrade C: weaker evidence — both clubs are rated on goals scored and conceded, not on the chances they created.
Real Oviedo vs Girona overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Real Oviedo vs Girona
| Probability | Real Oviedo | Draw | Girona |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 29.3% | 26.9% | 43.8% |
| Market | 37.6% | 28.8% | 33.6% |
| Final | 35.5% | 28.3% | 36.2% |
| Edge | -2.1% | -0.5% | +2.5% |
Why Girona
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.59 vs 1.27.
- The market prices Girona below our published probability: +2.5 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.98, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +7.8% per unit staked (our 36.2% × 2.98 − 1).
Real Oviedo vs Girona match preview
Real Oviedo faces Girona in a Segunda División matchup, with both teams having a 36% probability of winning according to our model, while a draw stands at 28%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-2, with a 9% chance of occurring. Real Oviedo's expected goals are 1.27, whereas Girona's are higher at 1.59, suggesting a competitive encounter.
In terms of recent form, Real Oviedo has recorded two wins, two draws, and one loss in their last five matches, while Girona has performed slightly better with three wins, one draw, and two losses. The head-to-head record shows Real Oviedo with one win and one draw against Girona in their last two encounters, indicating a slight historical advantage for Oviedo.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Real Oviedo and Girona expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.86
Real Oviedo and Girona attack and defence ratings
Real Oviedo
Girona
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 14 fixtures
Before and after this match
Real Oviedo vs Girona markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Girona | 36.2% | 2.77 | +2.5% | 2.98 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54.6% | 1.83 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58.5% | 1.71 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 71.7% | 1.39 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 56.2% | 1.78 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Real Oviedo | 35.5% |
| Draw | 28.3% | |
| Girona | 36.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 45.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58.5% |
| No | 41.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 63.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 64.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Girona win | 23.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.8% | |
| Loss | 56.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.7% |
| 1-2 | 9.2% | |
| 0-1 | 7.9% |
Real Oviedo vs Girona stats
Real Oviedo and Girona recent form
| Real Oviedo |
WLDDWW |
| Girona |
LLWWWD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Real Oviedo and Girona season so far
Real Oviedo record
- They have won 5 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game on the road against 1.2 at home.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 12 matches.
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Girona record
- They have won 6 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.3 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Real Oviedo vs Girona head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-31 | Real Oviedo | Girona | La Liga | 1-0 |
| 2025-10-25 | Girona | Real Oviedo | La Liga | 3-3 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Real Oviedo vs Girona odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 37.6%, draw 28.8%, away 33.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.56 | 3.36 | 2.83 |
| Bet365 | 2.62 | 3.20 | 2.62 |
| BetVictor | 2.45 | 3.20 | 2.70 |
| Betano | 2.55 | 3.30 | 2.82 |
| Betfair | 2.38 | 3.10 | 2.70 |
| Marathonbet | 2.48 | 3.26 | 2.74 |
| Pinnacle | 2.45 | 3.31 | 2.98 |
| SBO | 2.26 | 3.00 | 2.67 |
| William Hill | 2.40 | 3.00 | 2.80 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
4 snapshots recorded, from .