Girona
vs
Almeria
Garuda Lions Prediction: Girona
1 – 0 Predicted score · 11% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.43 vs 1.05.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Girona is the favourite, not a value bet.
Girona vs Almeria overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Girona vs Almeria
| Probability | Girona | Draw | Almeria |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 44.5% | 29.1% | 26.4% |
| Market | 45.8% | 26.9% | 27.3% |
| Final | 45.5% | 27.5% | 27.1% |
| Edge | -0.3% | +0.5% | -0.2% |
Why Girona
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.43 vs 1.05.
Best available price on the pick: 2.09, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -5.0% per unit staked (our 45.5% × 2.09 − 1).
Girona vs Almeria match preview
Girona will face Almeria in their upcoming Segunda División match, with Girona holding a 45% probability of winning compared to Almeria's 26%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-0 in favor of Girona, occurring with an 11% likelihood. Girona's expected goals stand at 1.43, while Almeria's is lower at 1.05.
In terms of recent form, Girona has recorded one win, three draws, and two losses in their last six matches, while Almeria is on a stronger run with four wins and two draws in their last six games. The head-to-head record shows Girona with one win and one draw against Almeria in their last two encounters. The probabilities for over 2.5 goals are at 45%, and both teams to score sits at 51%.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Girona and Almeria expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.47
Girona and Almeria attack and defence ratings
Girona
Almeria
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 13 fixtures
Before and after this match
Girona vs Almeria markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Girona | 45.5% | 2.20 | -0.3% | 2.09 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 55.1% | 1.81 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50.5% | 1.98 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 72.9% | 1.37 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 55.5% | 1.80 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Girona | 45.5% |
| Draw | 27.5% | |
| Almeria | 27.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 44.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 55.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50.5% |
| No | 49.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 72.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 54.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Girona win | 22.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.3% | |
| Loss | 55.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.9% |
| 1-0 | 10.8% | |
| 0-0 | 9.7% |
Girona vs Almeria stats
Girona and Almeria recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Girona and Almeria season so far
Girona record
- They have won 6 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They average 2.3 goals per game at home against 1.5 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Almeria record
- They have won 8 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They average 2.5 goals per game at home against 1.4 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 7 matches.
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Girona vs Almeria head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-01-14 | Almeria | Girona | La Liga | 0-0 |
| 2023-10-22 | Girona | Almeria | La Liga | 5-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Girona vs Almeria odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 45.8%, draw 26.9%, away 27.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.04 | 3.72 | 3.53 |
| Bet365 | 2.05 | 3.40 | 3.60 |
| BetVictor | 2.00 | 3.40 | 3.30 |
| Betano | 2.07 | 3.55 | 3.45 |
| Betfair | 2.00 | 3.40 | 3.30 |
| Dafabet | 2.09 | 3.55 | 3.45 |
| Marathonbet | 1.98 | 3.60 | 3.42 |
| Pinnacle | 2.06 | 3.62 | 3.48 |
| SBO | 2.05 | 3.04 | 3.00 |
| William Hill | 2.00 | 3.40 | 3.30 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
10 snapshots recorded, from .