Eibar
vs
Almeria
Garuda Lions Prediction: Eibar
2 – 1 Predicted score · 8% model probability
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Eibar is the favourite, not a value bet.
Eibar vs Almeria overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Eibar vs Almeria
| Probability | Eibar | Draw | Almeria |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 32.3% | 26.4% | 41.3% |
| Market | 38.7% | 27.8% | 33.5% |
| Final | 37.1% | 27.5% | 35.4% |
| Edge | -1.6% | -0.4% | +2.0% |
Best available price on the pick: 2.52, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -6.5% per unit staked (our 37.1% × 2.52 − 1).
Eibar vs Almeria match preview
Eibar and Almeria are set to clash in a tightly contested match, with Eibar holding a 37% probability of winning compared to Almeria's 35%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-1 in favor of Eibar, with an 8% chance of occurrence. Both teams have shown offensive capabilities, as indicated by the expected goals of Eibar at 1.40 and Almeria at 1.60.
Recent form suggests a competitive matchup, with Eibar recording two wins in their last five matches, while Almeria has been in strong form, remaining unbeaten in their last six games. The probability of over 2.5 goals stands at 58%, and both teams scoring is forecasted at 61%, highlighting the potential for an engaging encounter.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Eibar and Almeria expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.00
Eibar and Almeria attack and defence ratings
Eibar
Almeria
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
Before and after this match
Eibar vs Almeria markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Eibar | 37.1% | 2.69 | -1.6% | 2.52 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57.8% | 1.73 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61.3% | 1.63 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 72.5% | 1.38 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 67.7% | 1.48 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Eibar | 37.1% |
| Draw | 27.5% | |
| Almeria | 35.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 42.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61.3% |
| No | 38.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 64.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 62.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Eibar win | 15.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17.1% | |
| Loss | 67.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.2% |
| 1-2 | 8.9% | |
| 2-1 | 7.8% |
Eibar vs Almeria stats
Eibar and Almeria recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Eibar and Almeria season so far
Eibar record
- They have won 7 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 7 matches.
- 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Almeria record
- They have won 8 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They average 2.6 goals per game at home against 1.4 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Eibar vs Almeria head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-25 | Eibar | Almeria | Segunda División | 1-0 |
| 2025-11-01 | Almeria | Eibar | Segunda División | 3-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Eibar vs Almeria odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 38.7%, draw 27.8%, away 33.5%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.48 | 3.46 | 2.86 |
| BetVictor | 2.38 | 3.40 | 2.70 |
| Betano | 2.52 | 3.35 | 2.82 |
| Marathonbet | 2.40 | 3.36 | 2.77 |
| Pinnacle | 2.46 | 3.42 | 2.85 |
| William Hill | 2.38 | 3.10 | 2.80 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
2 snapshots recorded, from .