AD Ceuta FC
vs
Sporting Gijon
Garuda Lions Prediction: Sporting Gijon
1 – 2 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- WhyBetter recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
AD Ceuta FC vs Sporting Gijon overview
Garuda Lions analysis: AD Ceuta FC vs Sporting Gijon
| Probability | AD Ceuta FC | Draw | Sporting Gijon |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 30.4% | 27.1% | 42.5% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 30.4% | 27.1% | 42.5% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Sporting Gijon
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
AD Ceuta FC vs Sporting Gijon match preview
AD Ceuta FC faces Sporting Gijon in a Segunda División matchup, with our model assigning a 30% probability of a home win for Ceuta, while Gijon has a 42% chance of winning. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-2, occurring at a rate of 9%. The expected goals for AD Ceuta FC stand at 1.29, while Sporting Gijon is projected to score 1.56.
Recent form shows AD Ceuta FC struggling with three losses and only two draws in their last five matches, whereas Sporting Gijon has had a stronger performance with four wins and two losses in the same period. The likelihood of over 2.5 goals is estimated at 54%, and there is a 58% chance that both teams will score in the match.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
AD Ceuta FC and Sporting Gijon expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.84
AD Ceuta FC and Sporting Gijon attack and defence ratings
AD Ceuta FC
Sporting Gijon
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
Before and after this match
AD Ceuta FC vs Sporting Gijon markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sporting Gijon | 42.5% | 2.35 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54.1% | 1.85 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58.3% | 1.72 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 72.9% | 1.37 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 57.5% | 1.74 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | AD Ceuta FC | 30.4% |
| Draw | 27.1% | |
| Sporting Gijon | 42.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 45.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58.3% |
| No | 41.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 57.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 69.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Sporting Gijon win | 21.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.6% | |
| Loss | 57.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.8% |
| 1-2 | 9.1% | |
| 0-1 | 7.9% |
AD Ceuta FC vs Sporting Gijon stats
AD Ceuta FC and Sporting Gijon recent form
| AD Ceuta FC |
LLLDWD |
| Sporting Gijon |
LWWWLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
AD Ceuta FC and Sporting Gijon season so far
AD Ceuta FC record
- They have won 1 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 10 matches.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Sporting Gijon record
- They have won 6 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 10 matches.
AD Ceuta FC vs Sporting Gijon head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-03 | Sporting Gijon | AD Ceuta FC | Segunda División | 1-2 |
| 2025-08-23 | AD Ceuta FC | Sporting Gijon | Segunda División | 0-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.